The University of Southampton
×
Filter your search:
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era

Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
2041-1723
Barnard, Rosanna C.
e2d26b50-3e89-4970-917b-86be72ab922e
Davies, Nicholas G.
25184305-5278-41d4-9654-8da0ca1cf51d
Munday, James D.
22237870-bca7-4090-9ee2-dad4986b7c79
Lowe, Rachel
8b9eb87e-6ef9-452c-b5dc-650cc467da12
Knight, Gwenan M.
264364d8-dd24-497c-af7e-bc046901f744
Leclerc, Quentin J.
f6171c1e-7c9e-498b-bd0e-18d934ad2805
Tully, Damien C.
cc5209a8-e0fb-41e4-99eb-e0c6baca69e3
Hodgson, David
b5cd55b1-6f55-46c1-ab4f-c92c1333ffb3
Pung, Rachael
ce2d32be-f67b-412c-bf9b-1b275472b2a4
Hellewell, Joel
e2203422-4e86-4de4-8768-55e969275030
Koltai, Mihaly
64cea1ba-ac4c-46d0-a57e-7a0f0d45677d
Simons, David
850b37cf-6b76-4777-9fd6-12b72b054d59
Abbas, Kaja
43cf5abc-77b4-4aea-809d-b9b4f0e48b17
Kucharski, Adam J.
19975425-144e-4e68-9bcd-25e50cc7ad31
Procter, Simon R.
ac6bc704-455f-4801-afe5-4a01b6475e95
Sandmann, Frank G.
26136dce-a8e7-434e-86a6-79f810bd8302
Pearson, Carl A.B.
b9f67ec0-ab59-4537-9aa5-45eb62f8e523
Prem, Kiesha
f444dbda-ab2b-4f0e-bf1b-f3bfb709aa38
Showering, Alicia
86fe7523-979f-491b-981e-4331275e5a20
Meakin, Sophie R.
a9a0d844-d609-461a-ad1b-be906ae338e3
O’Reilly, Kathleen
2d2eab27-8ae0-44dc-a284-f2b7f6858b02
McCarthy, Ciara V.
6c1cab5b-e570-401c-9ede-869384d5f4e4
Quaife, Matthew
f6139761-9d82-4a81-b2ef-e750977ab8f4
Wong, Kerry L.M.
84ba7d11-429f-4b16-9f0c-8ed790514316
Jafari, Yalda
54e9870d-ba49-49ce-a9b7-0d0e19708f14
Deol, Arminder K.
7c706a61-2a1b-4781-96c1-7cf3d29b4c4d
Houben, Rein M.G.J.
a451cc6f-8d07-4528-94fa-dd63b461fe40
Diamond, Charlie
adb8d20a-4e7a-48cc-888d-81a534988b8b
Jombart, Thibaut
7144327d-cb18-44cf-9765-509b98f6435b
Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian
7f9bf4ba-045d-4c8e-928e-ad8f5670b069
Waites, William
a069e5ff-f440-4b89-ae81-3b58c2ae2afd
Eggo, Rosalind M.
150c61b4-762d-4356-9924-1cdb75126db6
Endo, Akira
24b58000-1eff-4fa8-a64a-b3cd9a727314
Gibbs, Hamish P.
a7c68116-c71c-4df2-87c3-2f209f1f203e
Klepac, Petra
c0c57afb-f2f5-4675-a18b-e5a0d5ee0c7b
Williams, Jack
9d10b63e-5997-4105-a4d0-601b1ab03c98
Quilty, Billy J.
7fc8c6b4-2740-45d6-96b1-70a0553cf339
Brady, Oliver
2acbd374-26d3-4e56-9e19-558eef1d4f9b
Emery, Jon C.
dcee1ac5-b702-4eba-b4db-d98a8df069f4
Atkins, Katherine E.
e396359b-6346-44fc-be90-41824d4050ea
Chapman, Lloyd A.C.
4c7ad8dd-ae52-4c1e-bb49-f1f49b6e460d
Sherratt, Katharine
bf00a77d-7057-4fe2-95c5-e9d928557eda
Abbott, Sam
e8d25152-b481-40b4-b429-82c93d21c26e
Bosse, Nikos I.
3eee16f4-087b-45ee-92c7-b7edcc7db1f3
Mee, Paul
6bd96e3d-8560-4c55-9f32-5326c32c16e6
Funk, Sebastian
99328474-b245-47ab-8bc1-d2854032a577
Lei, Jiayao
10ac20fb-3650-4db1-a109-d2542637da95
Liu, Yang
1a2ba66d-ee81-4f64-988b-cf6770e80c53
Flasche, Stefan
3499af0a-c722-4ae2-90ba-4ce6401389f5
Jit, Mark
c99d1e17-a445-4ac7-8b56-ba179ebf5190
Edmunds, W. John
478db96b-7b72-416e-82b1-6ce9f0f8c8c2
CMMID COVID-19 Working Group
Barnard, Rosanna C.
e2d26b50-3e89-4970-917b-86be72ab922e
Davies, Nicholas G.
25184305-5278-41d4-9654-8da0ca1cf51d
Munday, James D.
22237870-bca7-4090-9ee2-dad4986b7c79
Lowe, Rachel
8b9eb87e-6ef9-452c-b5dc-650cc467da12
Knight, Gwenan M.
264364d8-dd24-497c-af7e-bc046901f744
Leclerc, Quentin J.
f6171c1e-7c9e-498b-bd0e-18d934ad2805
Tully, Damien C.
cc5209a8-e0fb-41e4-99eb-e0c6baca69e3
Hodgson, David
b5cd55b1-6f55-46c1-ab4f-c92c1333ffb3
Pung, Rachael
ce2d32be-f67b-412c-bf9b-1b275472b2a4
Hellewell, Joel
e2203422-4e86-4de4-8768-55e969275030
Koltai, Mihaly
64cea1ba-ac4c-46d0-a57e-7a0f0d45677d
Simons, David
850b37cf-6b76-4777-9fd6-12b72b054d59
Abbas, Kaja
43cf5abc-77b4-4aea-809d-b9b4f0e48b17
Kucharski, Adam J.
19975425-144e-4e68-9bcd-25e50cc7ad31
Procter, Simon R.
ac6bc704-455f-4801-afe5-4a01b6475e95
Sandmann, Frank G.
26136dce-a8e7-434e-86a6-79f810bd8302
Pearson, Carl A.B.
b9f67ec0-ab59-4537-9aa5-45eb62f8e523
Prem, Kiesha
f444dbda-ab2b-4f0e-bf1b-f3bfb709aa38
Showering, Alicia
86fe7523-979f-491b-981e-4331275e5a20
Meakin, Sophie R.
a9a0d844-d609-461a-ad1b-be906ae338e3
O’Reilly, Kathleen
2d2eab27-8ae0-44dc-a284-f2b7f6858b02
McCarthy, Ciara V.
6c1cab5b-e570-401c-9ede-869384d5f4e4
Quaife, Matthew
f6139761-9d82-4a81-b2ef-e750977ab8f4
Wong, Kerry L.M.
84ba7d11-429f-4b16-9f0c-8ed790514316
Jafari, Yalda
54e9870d-ba49-49ce-a9b7-0d0e19708f14
Deol, Arminder K.
7c706a61-2a1b-4781-96c1-7cf3d29b4c4d
Houben, Rein M.G.J.
a451cc6f-8d07-4528-94fa-dd63b461fe40
Diamond, Charlie
adb8d20a-4e7a-48cc-888d-81a534988b8b
Jombart, Thibaut
7144327d-cb18-44cf-9765-509b98f6435b
Villabona-Arenas, C. Julian
7f9bf4ba-045d-4c8e-928e-ad8f5670b069
Waites, William
a069e5ff-f440-4b89-ae81-3b58c2ae2afd
Eggo, Rosalind M.
150c61b4-762d-4356-9924-1cdb75126db6
Endo, Akira
24b58000-1eff-4fa8-a64a-b3cd9a727314
Gibbs, Hamish P.
a7c68116-c71c-4df2-87c3-2f209f1f203e
Klepac, Petra
c0c57afb-f2f5-4675-a18b-e5a0d5ee0c7b
Williams, Jack
9d10b63e-5997-4105-a4d0-601b1ab03c98
Quilty, Billy J.
7fc8c6b4-2740-45d6-96b1-70a0553cf339
Brady, Oliver
2acbd374-26d3-4e56-9e19-558eef1d4f9b
Emery, Jon C.
dcee1ac5-b702-4eba-b4db-d98a8df069f4
Atkins, Katherine E.
e396359b-6346-44fc-be90-41824d4050ea
Chapman, Lloyd A.C.
4c7ad8dd-ae52-4c1e-bb49-f1f49b6e460d
Sherratt, Katharine
bf00a77d-7057-4fe2-95c5-e9d928557eda
Abbott, Sam
e8d25152-b481-40b4-b429-82c93d21c26e
Bosse, Nikos I.
3eee16f4-087b-45ee-92c7-b7edcc7db1f3
Mee, Paul
6bd96e3d-8560-4c55-9f32-5326c32c16e6
Funk, Sebastian
99328474-b245-47ab-8bc1-d2854032a577
Lei, Jiayao
10ac20fb-3650-4db1-a109-d2542637da95
Liu, Yang
1a2ba66d-ee81-4f64-988b-cf6770e80c53
Flasche, Stefan
3499af0a-c722-4ae2-90ba-4ce6401389f5
Jit, Mark
c99d1e17-a445-4ac7-8b56-ba179ebf5190
Edmunds, W. John
478db96b-7b72-416e-82b1-6ce9f0f8c8c2

Barnard, Rosanna C., Davies, Nicholas G., Jit, Mark and Edmunds, W. John , CMMID COVID-19 Working Group (2022) Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era. Nature Communications, 13, [4879]. (doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y).

Record type: Article

Abstract

England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.

Text
s41467-022-32404-y - Version of Record
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.
Download (1MB)

More information

Accepted/In Press date: 25 July 2022
Published date: 19 August 2022

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 500255
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/500255
DOI: doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y
ISSN: 2041-1723
PURE UUID: 9c9e98f7-2131-4aa3-9bcd-9df84395d7b1
ORCID for William Waites: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-7759-6805

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 Apr 2025 16:45
Last modified: 24 Apr 2025 02:11

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: Rosanna C. Barnard
Author: Nicholas G. Davies
Author: James D. Munday
Author: Rachel Lowe
Author: Gwenan M. Knight
Author: Quentin J. Leclerc
Author: Damien C. Tully
Author: David Hodgson
Author: Rachael Pung
Author: Joel Hellewell
Author: Mihaly Koltai
Author: David Simons
Author: Kaja Abbas
Author: Adam J. Kucharski
Author: Simon R. Procter
Author: Frank G. Sandmann
Author: Carl A.B. Pearson
Author: Kiesha Prem
Author: Alicia Showering
Author: Sophie R. Meakin
Author: Kathleen O’Reilly
Author: Ciara V. McCarthy
Author: Matthew Quaife
Author: Kerry L.M. Wong
Author: Yalda Jafari
Author: Arminder K. Deol
Author: Rein M.G.J. Houben
Author: Charlie Diamond
Author: Thibaut Jombart
Author: C. Julian Villabona-Arenas
Author: William Waites ORCID iD
Author: Rosalind M. Eggo
Author: Akira Endo
Author: Hamish P. Gibbs
Author: Petra Klepac
Author: Jack Williams
Author: Billy J. Quilty
Author: Oliver Brady
Author: Jon C. Emery
Author: Katherine E. Atkins
Author: Lloyd A.C. Chapman
Author: Katharine Sherratt
Author: Sam Abbott
Author: Nikos I. Bosse
Author: Paul Mee
Author: Sebastian Funk
Author: Jiayao Lei
Author: Yang Liu
Author: Stefan Flasche
Author: Mark Jit
Author: W. John Edmunds
Corporate Author: CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Library staff additional information
Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×