Decision-support frameworks for MCDA method selection and emission abatement technology assessment in the maritime sector

Abstract

The maritime industry significantly impacts global trade but is challenged by high emissions contributing to environmental degradation and climate change. Transitioning to sustainable maritime practices necessitates robust decision-aid tools to manage complex, multi-stakeholder scenarios effectively. Decision science, however, often struggles to develop comprehensive decision-aid frameworks due to methodological constraints, inadequate stakeholder representation, and the dynamic nature of maritime operations.

The evolution of decision analysis, from traditional single-objective optimization to multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), has advanced decision science by better accommodating diverse stakeholder perspectives and multiple conflicting criteria. Despite these advancements, a critical research gap remains: the lack of systematic frameworks for selecting appropriate MCDA methods specifically tailored to port sustainability and maritime emission abatement decisions.
This study addresses this gap by developing a structured MCDA selection framework informed by a systematic literature review conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. The framework categorizes decision problems into four types—ranking, choice, sorting, and clustering—and aligns them with suitable MCDA methods. The review identifies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a widely used method due to its structured and intuitive hierarchy. However, it also highlights notable limitations, including design and describing alternatives and computational complexity with numerous criteria.

To enhance the practicality of AHP, this research integrates a feature-model-based screening process that systematically preselects feasible alternatives. This approach reduces cognitive burden in the decision-making process. The results reveal specific stakeholder preferences influenced by vessel characteristics, voyage types, and regulatory contexts, underscoring the importance of tailored decision support. A comparative analysis of national strategies in Norway and Singapore further highlights the effectiveness of regulatory incentives and collaborative approaches in accelerating technology adoption.

The primary contribution of this study is the development of a bottom-up decision-support framework that integrates problem structuring with multi-stakeholder decision modelling for sustainable maritime investments. Its implications extend beyond academia, offering actionable insights for policymakers, shipping companies, and port authorities. Future research should aim to expand stakeholder engagement, incorporate dynamic decision-making models, and integrate behavioural dimensions into sustainability planning.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Kaiqi Xu: orcid.org/0000-0002-1021-4630

ORCID for Mario Brito: orcid.org/0000-0002-1779-4535

ORCID for Patrick Beullens: orcid.org/0000-0001-6156-3550

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