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European public opinion: united in supporting Ukraine, divided on future of NATO

European public opinion: united in supporting Ukraine, divided on future of NATO
European public opinion: united in supporting Ukraine, divided on future of NATO
• How strong is public support for Ukraine in Europe? Given reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be ‘playing for time’ in the hopes that weary publics will demand an end to supporting Ukraine, this is an important question.

• In February 2023, we conducted a survey of public attitudes in ten major European countries: France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Italy and Spain.

• Our findings suggest that Europeans are (almost) unanimous in blaming Russia for the war and strongly in favour of standing by Ukraine in its war effort.

• Only minorities of respondents are of the opinion that Ukraine should be urged to accept territorial losses that could help end the war, or that economic sanctions against Russia should be lifted. Even in countries where support for Ukraine is lower (Hungary and Italy), or among more sceptical groups, we typically find a majority or plurality on Ukraine's side (or, at worst, we find only a small majority are pro-Russia).

• Regarding NATO, there is no widespread appetite for increasing its presence in eastern Europe (except in Poland and Estonia), and even less support for Ukraine joining the alliance. At least in the eyes of the public, fighting a war in Ukraine is perceived as a goal in itself that does not necessarily elicit broader changes to existing security alliances like NATO.

• Looking ahead, if the gap between the expectations audiences had for the Ukrainian counter-offensive and what it actually delivers is too great, we would expect public support for Ukraine in the conflict to weaken overall.

• If governments wish to keep support levels high, we recommend targeting communications to reach groups we have found to be less supportive. This could include utilizing non-traditional media platforms to reach younger audiences, or members of populist right-wing groups.
0020-5850
2485-2500
Thomson, Catarina
a91dbc92-c9eb-46c9-97d0-f64b6ca78732
Mader, Matthias
febfb4b7-f222-4d5f-a035-28cf99d5930f
Münchow, Felix
1f94e50d-0841-4484-918f-de24800922e3
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Schoen, Harald
6fc8ed20-53b8-4b50-8ff6-cd51d41f3b09
Thomson, Catarina
a91dbc92-c9eb-46c9-97d0-f64b6ca78732
Mader, Matthias
febfb4b7-f222-4d5f-a035-28cf99d5930f
Münchow, Felix
1f94e50d-0841-4484-918f-de24800922e3
Reifler, Jason
426301a1-f90b-470d-a076-04a9d716c491
Schoen, Harald
6fc8ed20-53b8-4b50-8ff6-cd51d41f3b09

Thomson, Catarina, Mader, Matthias, Münchow, Felix, Reifler, Jason and Schoen, Harald (2023) European public opinion: united in supporting Ukraine, divided on future of NATO. International Affairs, 99 (6), 2485-2500. (doi:10.1093/ia/iiad241).

Record type: Article

Abstract

• How strong is public support for Ukraine in Europe? Given reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be ‘playing for time’ in the hopes that weary publics will demand an end to supporting Ukraine, this is an important question.

• In February 2023, we conducted a survey of public attitudes in ten major European countries: France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Italy and Spain.

• Our findings suggest that Europeans are (almost) unanimous in blaming Russia for the war and strongly in favour of standing by Ukraine in its war effort.

• Only minorities of respondents are of the opinion that Ukraine should be urged to accept territorial losses that could help end the war, or that economic sanctions against Russia should be lifted. Even in countries where support for Ukraine is lower (Hungary and Italy), or among more sceptical groups, we typically find a majority or plurality on Ukraine's side (or, at worst, we find only a small majority are pro-Russia).

• Regarding NATO, there is no widespread appetite for increasing its presence in eastern Europe (except in Poland and Estonia), and even less support for Ukraine joining the alliance. At least in the eyes of the public, fighting a war in Ukraine is perceived as a goal in itself that does not necessarily elicit broader changes to existing security alliances like NATO.

• Looking ahead, if the gap between the expectations audiences had for the Ukrainian counter-offensive and what it actually delivers is too great, we would expect public support for Ukraine in the conflict to weaken overall.

• If governments wish to keep support levels high, we recommend targeting communications to reach groups we have found to be less supportive. This could include utilizing non-traditional media platforms to reach younger audiences, or members of populist right-wing groups.

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Published date: 6 November 2023

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 501559
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/501559
ISSN: 0020-5850
PURE UUID: 5d68ce99-aacd-4c7c-a073-e1a32a2749b8
ORCID for Jason Reifler: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-1116-7346

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Date deposited: 03 Jun 2025 17:04
Last modified: 22 Aug 2025 02:43

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Contributors

Author: Catarina Thomson
Author: Matthias Mader
Author: Felix Münchow
Author: Jason Reifler ORCID iD
Author: Harald Schoen

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