Garnelo Bibiano, Niceforo (2025) A simulation modelling study on the contraceptive, sexual, and reproductive dynamics of the Mexican female population. University of Southampton, Doctoral Thesis, 210pp.
Abstract
This thesis introduces a system dynamics model featuring an endogenously driven, multistate, age-structured, time-varying, and stochastic structure. The devised model allowed, for the first time, to represent the contraceptive, sexual, and reproductive behaviours that characterise different age and birth cohorts of Mexican women at their reproductive ages.
By depicting the interrelations between such behaviours, the model allowed the estimation and projection of a set of hypothetical contraceptive provision policies and programme-relevant health (i.e., unintended pregnancy, unsafe abortion, maternal deaths) and economic (i.e., cost-effectiveness) indicators. Of the compared policies, increasing adoption of modern reversible contraception, and an integrated policy that aims to increase modern reversible contraception whilst reducing method discontinuation, proved to be the two most efficient in terms of health outcomes and monetary investment.
The results obtained, and the conclusions established in this manuscript will be relevant for the Mexican context and appealing to policymakers, who are currently interested in finding innovative approaches to expanding contraceptive coverage with economically efficient strategies, as it is established in the national guidance on Sexual and Reproductive Health.
The model formulation will also be relevant in the system dynamics modelling field, as a novel, open-source, vectorised architecture will be available to study contraceptive, sexual and reproductive behaviours in different contexts. Although the data needs of the model are substantial, most can be satisfied with regularly collected, and easy-to-access cross-sectional data or topic-specific literature.
More information
Identifiers
Catalogue record
Export record
Contributors
Download statistics
Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.