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The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ 18 O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions

The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ 18 O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions
The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ 18 O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions
Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO2 levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ18O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ18O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.
0012-8252
291-302
Raymo, Maureen E.
eda6af85-8c8a-40d8-8777-a262b1e03ab4
Kozdon, Reinhard
b13878a8-49d2-4442-9fbc-1de896353268
Evans, David
878c65c7-eab9-4362-896b-166e165eb94b
Lisiecki, Lorraine
cf673a43-72d8-497b-bc9a-3fbcca641847
Ford, Heather L.
e4686f5d-2719-40d8-8eb5-d2815372c516
Raymo, Maureen E.
eda6af85-8c8a-40d8-8777-a262b1e03ab4
Kozdon, Reinhard
b13878a8-49d2-4442-9fbc-1de896353268
Evans, David
878c65c7-eab9-4362-896b-166e165eb94b
Lisiecki, Lorraine
cf673a43-72d8-497b-bc9a-3fbcca641847
Ford, Heather L.
e4686f5d-2719-40d8-8eb5-d2815372c516

Raymo, Maureen E., Kozdon, Reinhard, Evans, David, Lisiecki, Lorraine and Ford, Heather L. (2018) The accuracy of mid-Pliocene δ 18 O-based ice volume and sea level reconstructions. Earth-Science Reviews, 177, 291-302. (doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.11.022).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Understanding the sensitivity of the polar ice caps to a modest global warming (2–3 °C above preindustrial) is of paramount importance if we are to accurately predict future sea level change, knowledge that will inform both social and economic policy in the coming years. However, decades of study of the Pliocene (2.6–5.3 Ma), an epoch in recent Earth history characterized by atmospheric CO2 levels similar to today, have so far failed to provide definitive sea level and ice volume estimates for that time. Here we review the sources of uncertainty in the paired Mg/Ca-δ18O methodology used to estimate past sea level, ice volume, and ocean temperature, as well as discuss common assumptions that may bias our interpretation of ocean geochemical records including the LR04 benthic-δ18O stack, a global compilation of 57 oxygen isotope records that forms the standard template of climate change history for the last 5.3 million years.

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Published date: 1 February 2018

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 502462
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/502462
ISSN: 0012-8252
PURE UUID: 4fe5875e-1b70-49a6-a112-e5d4f8962b2e
ORCID for David Evans: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8685-671X

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Date deposited: 26 Jun 2025 17:07
Last modified: 28 Jun 2025 04:05

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Contributors

Author: Maureen E. Raymo
Author: Reinhard Kozdon
Author: David Evans ORCID iD
Author: Lorraine Lisiecki
Author: Heather L. Ford

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