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Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems

Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems
Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential aspect of computational modelling and statistical prediction. Multiple applications, including geophysics, climate science and aerospace engineering, incorporate UQ in the development and translation of new technologies. In contrast, the application of UQ to biological and healthcare models is understudied and suffers from several critical knowledge gaps. In an era of personalized medicine, patient-specific modelling, and digital twins, a lack of UQ understanding and appropriate implementation of UQ methodology limits the success of modelling and simulation in a clinical setting. The main contribution of our review article is to emphasize the importance and current deficiencies of UQ in the development of computational frameworks for healthcare and biological systems. As the introduction to the special issue on this topic, we provide an overview of UQ methodologies, their applications in non-biological and biological systems and the current gaps and opportunities for UQ development, as later highlighted by authors publishing in the special issue.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems (Part 1)’.
biology and healthcare, clinical decision support, digital twins, mechanistic models, uncertainty quantification
1364-503X
Kimpton, Louise M.
b184e8a5-50b7-4070-af51-99f1cdb36751
Paun, L. Mihaela
1b65f242-287e-4201-b995-ff6be75f070b
Colebank, Mitchel J.
4fb182f3-e3df-44a0-b88f-895010691217
Volodina, Victoria
5a3546cf-ace6-4830-ae77-1b5702899e7f
Kimpton, Louise M.
b184e8a5-50b7-4070-af51-99f1cdb36751
Paun, L. Mihaela
1b65f242-287e-4201-b995-ff6be75f070b
Colebank, Mitchel J.
4fb182f3-e3df-44a0-b88f-895010691217
Volodina, Victoria
5a3546cf-ace6-4830-ae77-1b5702899e7f

Kimpton, Louise M., Paun, L. Mihaela, Colebank, Mitchel J. and Volodina, Victoria (2025) Challenges and opportunities in uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 383 (2292), [20240232]. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2024.0232).

Record type: Special issue

Abstract

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential aspect of computational modelling and statistical prediction. Multiple applications, including geophysics, climate science and aerospace engineering, incorporate UQ in the development and translation of new technologies. In contrast, the application of UQ to biological and healthcare models is understudied and suffers from several critical knowledge gaps. In an era of personalized medicine, patient-specific modelling, and digital twins, a lack of UQ understanding and appropriate implementation of UQ methodology limits the success of modelling and simulation in a clinical setting. The main contribution of our review article is to emphasize the importance and current deficiencies of UQ in the development of computational frameworks for healthcare and biological systems. As the introduction to the special issue on this topic, we provide an overview of UQ methodologies, their applications in non-biological and biological systems and the current gaps and opportunities for UQ development, as later highlighted by authors publishing in the special issue.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Uncertainty quantification for healthcare and biological systems (Part 1)’.

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More information

Accepted/In Press date: 13 November 2024
e-pub ahead of print date: 13 March 2025
Published date: 13 March 2025
Additional Information: For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising.
Keywords: biology and healthcare, clinical decision support, digital twins, mechanistic models, uncertainty quantification

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 502535
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/502535
ISSN: 1364-503X
PURE UUID: 36a56c42-0645-4946-a61e-3455d067cd24
ORCID for L. Mihaela Paun: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-8734-8135

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Date deposited: 30 Jun 2025 17:42
Last modified: 10 Sep 2025 13:43

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Contributors

Author: Louise M. Kimpton
Author: L. Mihaela Paun ORCID iD
Author: Mitchel J. Colebank
Author: Victoria Volodina

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