Cuthbertson, Daniel J., Kennedy, Oliver J., Bilson, Josh, Hydes, Theresa J., Targher, Giovanni, Glyn-Owen, Kate, Buchanan, Ryan, Roderick, Paul and Byrne, Christopher D. (2025) Impact of metabolic dysfunction severity in steatotic liver disease and its interaction with liver fibrosis on all-cause mortality and multiple hepatic and extra-hepatic outcomes. Metabolism, 170, [156306]. (doi:10.1016/j.metabol.2025.156306).
Abstract
Background: in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and in MASLD with alcohol consumption (MetALD), we investigated the effect of severity of metabolic dysfunction on incident major adverse liver outcomes (MALO), major cardiovascular events (MACE), obesity-related cancers, and all-cause mortality (ACM).
Methods: SLD was identified among 502,381 UK Biobank participants using the Hepatic Steatosis Index (HSI) (>36 vs.<30). Metabolic syndrome (MetS) traits and MetS (≥3 traits) using MASLD/MetALD criteria. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95%CIs [aHR(95%CIs)] of MASLD or MetALD plus 1 to 5 MetS traits with incident MALO, MACE, obesity-related cancers and 5-year/10-year incidence rates versus reference (no SLD/MetS traits).
Results: median follow-up was 148 to 149 months. Comparing MASLD with one versus five MetS traits, respectively, to the reference; for MALO, [aHRs (95%CIs)] were 2.27 (1.03–5.00) and 9.19 (4.98–16.95); for MetALD, aHRs were 1.65 (0.53–5.11) and 8.54 (3.65–19.95) respectively. For MACE, with MASLD; aHRs were 1.51 (1.19–1.92) and 4.81 (4.06–5.69) respectively; with MetALD, aHRs were 1.46 (1.00–2.13) and 4.64 (3.51–6.14) respectively. For obesity-related cancers; with MASLD, aHRs were 1.04 (0.87–1.23) and 1.46 (1.29–1.66) respectively; with MetALD, aHRs were 1.01 (0.79–1.29) and 1.51 (1.24–1.83) respectively. 5-year and 10-year incidence rates also increased progressively with increasing MetS traits. Combining SLD, MetS and high liver fibrosis risk (defined by FIB-4 ≥ 2.67) was strongly associated with MALO in both MASLD and MetALD (aHRs 27.48, (17.72–42.61); 43.36, 20.53–91.58 respectively).
Conclusion: in MASLD or MetALD, the numbers of MetS traits markedly influence risk and incidence of liver-related outcomes, MACE, obesity-related cancers and ACM.
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