Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
anthropogenic forcing, Arctic sea ice, attribution, climate trends, impact, sea surface temperature
2792-2800
Wu, Qigang
cea7cc67-4b76-4f50-8d92-fe46b32d8bfe
Cheng, Luyao
fd737a3c-4102-410d-b5c8-6e0e00d023c2
Chan, Duo
4c1278dc-7f39-4b67-b1cd-3f81f55f4906
Yao, Yonghong
e6568469-548a-4420-bfcb-975964d1a738
Hu, Haibo
5b48ed5d-af08-4c9a-9fa0-b571ecf78a41
Yao, Ying
1cd08296-8a0c-449c-9eca-468c5e296d6b
28 March 2016
Wu, Qigang
cea7cc67-4b76-4f50-8d92-fe46b32d8bfe
Cheng, Luyao
fd737a3c-4102-410d-b5c8-6e0e00d023c2
Chan, Duo
4c1278dc-7f39-4b67-b1cd-3f81f55f4906
Yao, Yonghong
e6568469-548a-4420-bfcb-975964d1a738
Hu, Haibo
5b48ed5d-af08-4c9a-9fa0-b571ecf78a41
Yao, Ying
1cd08296-8a0c-449c-9eca-468c5e296d6b
Wu, Qigang, Cheng, Luyao, Chan, Duo, Yao, Yonghong, Hu, Haibo and Yao, Ying
(2016)
Suppressed midlatitude summer atmospheric warming by Arctic sea ice loss during 1979-2012.
Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (6), .
(doi:10.1002/2016GL068059).
Abstract
Since the 1980s, rapid Arctic warming, sea ice decline, and weakening summer circulation have coincided with an increasing number of extreme heat waves and other destructive weather events in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in summer. Recent papers disagree about whether such high-impact events are related to Arctic warming and/or ice loss. Here we use atmospheric model ensemble simulations to attribute effects of sea ice loss and other factors on observed summer climate trends during 1979-2012. The ongoing greenhouse gas buildup and resulting sea surface temperature warming outside the Arctic explains nearly all land warming and a significant portion of observed weakening zonal winds in the NH midlatitudes. However, sea ice loss has induced a negative Arctic Oscillation(AO)-type circulation with significant summer surface and tropospheric cooling trends over large portions of the NH midlatitudes, which reduce the warming and might reduce the probability of regional severe hot summers.
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Accepted/In Press date: 29 February 2016
Published date: 28 March 2016
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Publisher Copyright:
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
Keywords:
anthropogenic forcing, Arctic sea ice, attribution, climate trends, impact, sea surface temperature
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 503005
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/503005
ISSN: 0094-8276
PURE UUID: 096043fd-0e6f-4298-844e-c20e63fbe6d8
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Date deposited: 15 Jul 2025 16:57
Last modified: 17 Jul 2025 02:25
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Contributors
Author:
Qigang Wu
Author:
Luyao Cheng
Author:
Duo Chan
Author:
Yonghong Yao
Author:
Haibo Hu
Author:
Ying Yao
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