Vision and reality: an assessment of Saudi Arabia’s in-country capacity to deliver on its solar ambitions

Abstract

Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision plans to install 40 GW of photovoltaic capacity in the country by 2030. This includes a requirement that deployed systems achieve a local content threshold of 33–35% for 2024–25, increasing to 40–45% for 2028 and beyond. With the exception of financing (75%), the level of local content for all other aspects of PV farms in Saudi Arabia is low (22–50%). In this paper, we consider the domestic manufacturing capacities of key components such as float glass, aluminum framing, steel, and concrete. Capacity constraints are evident, importing PV cells rather than modules (to increase local content by undertaking module lamination in the country) would require 58% of Saudi Arabia’s float glass production from now until 2030. We estimate that 85% of modules will need to be manufactured in their entirety in country if the local content of all other aspects does not change. Such an approach could result in higher commodity prices in Saudi Arabia, certainly in the short term, leading to import sourcing and, in effect, worsening of local content of PV systems. Therefore, increasing local content across all aspects of PV systems is needed, with a focus on the local skills base and capacity.

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ORCID for Patrick James: orcid.org/0000-0002-2694-7054

ORCID for Abubakr Bahaj: orcid.org/0000-0002-0043-6045

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