Incorporation of a global perspective into data-driven analysis of maritime collision accident risk

Abstract

Ship collision accidents are one of the most frequent accident types in global maritime transportation. Nevertheless, conducting an in-depth analysis of collision prevention poses a formidable challenge due to the constraints of limited Risk Influential Factors (RIFs) and available datasets. This paper aims to incorporate a global perspective into a new data-driven risk model, scrutinize the root causes of collision accidents, and advance measures for their mitigation. Additionally, it seeks to analyze the spatial distribution and conduct a comprehensive comparative study on collision characteristics for both pre- and post-COVID-19, utilizing the real accident dataset collected from two reputable organizations: Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) and Lloyd's Register Fairplay (LRF). The research findings and implications encompass several crucial aspects: 1) the constructed model demonstrates its reliability and accuracy in predicting collision accidents, as evident from its prediction performance and various scenario analysis; 2) the most hazardous voyage segment for collision accidents is identified to provide valuable guidance to different stakeholders; and 3) the hierarchical significance of various ship types in the context of collision accident is highlighted regarding the most probable scenario for collision occurrences; 4) During the pandemic, the rise in collision probabilities, particularly involving older vessels and bulk carriers, implies heightened operational challenges or maintenance issues for these ship types; (5) The prominence of favorable and adverse sea conditions in collision reports underscores the significant influence of weather on accidents during the pandemic. These findings and implications help enhance safety protocols, ultimately reducing the frequency of collision accidents in the global maritime domain.

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ORCID for Huanhuan Li: orcid.org/0000-0002-4293-4763

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