Modelled gridded population estimates for Kwilu Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo version 4.2

Nnanatu, Chris, Yankey, Ortis, Chaudhuri, Somnath, Chamberlain, Heather, Lazar, Attila and Tatem, Andrew (2025) Modelled gridded population estimates for Kwilu Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo version 4.2. (doi:10.5258/SOTON/WP00779).

Abstract

This data release provides gridded population estimates (spatial resolution of 3 arc-seconds, approximately 100-metre grid cells) for Kwilu Province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), along with estimates of the number of people belonging to various age-sex groups. The project team used the Pre-Distribution Registration Survey (PDRS) data from the National Malaria Control Programme (PNLP) collected as part of anti-malarial campaigns in the DRC for 2022 as well as settlement extents and geospatial covariates, to model and estimate population numbers at grid cell level using a Bayesian hierarchical statistical modelling framework. The approach facilitated accounting for the multiple levels of variability within the data while simultaneously quantifying for uncertainties in parameter estimates. These model-based population estimates can be considered as most accurately representing the year 2022, which is the period following the PDRS survey data collection for Kwilu. Although the methods were robust enough to explicitly account for key random biases and adjust for potential systematic biases within the observed datasets, it is important to note that some systematic biases arising from other sources may remain.

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Contributors

Author: Chris Nnanatu

Author: Ortis Yankey

Author: Somnath Chaudhuri

Author: Heather Chamberlain

Author: Attila Lazar

Author: Andrew Tatem

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