Forecasting the diffusion of electric vehicles: an agent-based model including household choice and social effects of coherence and communication
Forecasting the diffusion of electric vehicles: an agent-based model including household choice and social effects of coherence and communication
To address the problem of forecasting the diffusion of innovations, we propose an agent-based model to forecast the electric vehicle (EV) market, that considers fuel type choices, simultaneously tackling household decision-making and cognition (in the form of coherence evaluation), as well as processes of communication between households in their social network, which are the drivers of diffusion in the social network. We use a latent class discrete choice model to characterise fuel type choice at the household level, including preference heterogeneity, along with attitudinal and emotional effects with the hot coherence (HOTCO) model of cognitive consistency. Our agent-based model also incorporates direct and indirect communication between households in the network. The results are indicative of the need for a vast range of measures tackling several dimensions of vehicle purchase, ownership, and use, to ensure faster EV market diffusion.
Domarchi, Cristian
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Cherchi, Elisabetta
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Vuong, Quoc C.
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June 2025
Domarchi, Cristian
12770dd9-ec99-4d57-acfc-4ca745b63f07
Cherchi, Elisabetta
0bb4e26d-ed34-4fa4-b948-848d7565168f
Vuong, Quoc C.
9c3e8507-5762-4e63-9338-2bc5541cb253
Domarchi, Cristian, Cherchi, Elisabetta and Vuong, Quoc C.
(2025)
Forecasting the diffusion of electric vehicles: an agent-based model including household choice and social effects of coherence and communication.
13th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation, , Munch, Germany.
10 - 12 Jun 2025.
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Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
To address the problem of forecasting the diffusion of innovations, we propose an agent-based model to forecast the electric vehicle (EV) market, that considers fuel type choices, simultaneously tackling household decision-making and cognition (in the form of coherence evaluation), as well as processes of communication between households in their social network, which are the drivers of diffusion in the social network. We use a latent class discrete choice model to characterise fuel type choice at the household level, including preference heterogeneity, along with attitudinal and emotional effects with the hot coherence (HOTCO) model of cognitive consistency. Our agent-based model also incorporates direct and indirect communication between households in the network. The results are indicative of the need for a vast range of measures tackling several dimensions of vehicle purchase, ownership, and use, to ensure faster EV market diffusion.
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hEART_2025_shortpaper_109
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Published date: June 2025
Venue - Dates:
13th Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation, , Munch, Germany, 2025-06-10 - 2025-06-12
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Local EPrints ID: 504080
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/504080
PURE UUID: 4cf7e613-413d-4477-96d0-c2f53b9dc83d
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Date deposited: 22 Aug 2025 16:48
Last modified: 23 Aug 2025 02:30
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Contributors
Author:
Cristian Domarchi
Author:
Elisabetta Cherchi
Author:
Quoc C. Vuong
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