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Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis

Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis
Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis
While past major climate transitions can be unequivocally identified, understanding of underlying mechanisms and timescales remains limited. We employ a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records across different timescales to uncover how Cenozoic climatic fluctuations are associated with changes in the number of feedbacks and mechanisms involved. Our analysis indicates that warmer and colder climates respond substantially differently to orbital forcing. Notably, large numbers of feedbacks dominated during the Icehouse (3.3 Ma to present) state at obliquity and eccentricity timescales, and during the Warmhouse (66–56 Ma and 47–34 Ma) and Hothouse (56–47 Ma) states at precession timescales. During the Coolhouse (34–3.3 Ma) state the number of active feedbacks was low and had no dominant timescale. Coupling between climate signals that affect oxygen and carbon isotope records appears high only in the Icehouse state, and low to absent in all other states. We also find that anomalously high active feedback numbers and very high coupling occurred across all timescales during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma), which suggests a complete system perturbation. In conclusion, our findings challenge the notion of a simple and unique conceptual model of interconnected feedbacks in reproducing Cenozoic paleoclimate variability, given that different numbers of active feedbacks with different levels of coupling governed different timescales between climate states, which then affected the inherent (in-)stability of each climate state.
Abrupt climate shifts, Cenozoic climate variability, Dimensional analysis
2045-2322
Alberti, Tommaso
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Florindo, Fabio
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Rohling, Eelco J.
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Lucarini, Valerio
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Faranda, Davide
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Alberti, Tommaso
7f7f113e-cf6d-4da7-bcba-a5ff5dc42d47
Florindo, Fabio
5953170b-79f7-431e-9e08-824a47e0fbd5
Rohling, Eelco J.
a2a27ef2-fcce-4c71-907b-e692b5ecc685
Lucarini, Valerio
4e9753a2-efe7-4ca0-bed8-69ad9f44fc23
Faranda, Davide
b9e1884b-3ced-46f6-ab2f-1c22395fe508

Alberti, Tommaso, Florindo, Fabio, Rohling, Eelco J., Lucarini, Valerio and Faranda, Davide (2025) Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis. Scientific Reports, 15 (1), [13224]. (doi:10.1038/s41598-025-96432-6).

Record type: Article

Abstract

While past major climate transitions can be unequivocally identified, understanding of underlying mechanisms and timescales remains limited. We employ a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records across different timescales to uncover how Cenozoic climatic fluctuations are associated with changes in the number of feedbacks and mechanisms involved. Our analysis indicates that warmer and colder climates respond substantially differently to orbital forcing. Notably, large numbers of feedbacks dominated during the Icehouse (3.3 Ma to present) state at obliquity and eccentricity timescales, and during the Warmhouse (66–56 Ma and 47–34 Ma) and Hothouse (56–47 Ma) states at precession timescales. During the Coolhouse (34–3.3 Ma) state the number of active feedbacks was low and had no dominant timescale. Coupling between climate signals that affect oxygen and carbon isotope records appears high only in the Icehouse state, and low to absent in all other states. We also find that anomalously high active feedback numbers and very high coupling occurred across all timescales during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56 Ma), which suggests a complete system perturbation. In conclusion, our findings challenge the notion of a simple and unique conceptual model of interconnected feedbacks in reproducing Cenozoic paleoclimate variability, given that different numbers of active feedbacks with different levels of coupling governed different timescales between climate states, which then affected the inherent (in-)stability of each climate state.

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s41598-025-96432-6 - Version of Record
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Accepted/In Press date: 28 March 2025
Published date: 17 April 2025
Keywords: Abrupt climate shifts, Cenozoic climate variability, Dimensional analysis

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 504171
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/504171
ISSN: 2045-2322
PURE UUID: 278d0ae4-800a-4643-9401-bc911a5060b9
ORCID for Eelco J. Rohling: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5349-2158

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Date deposited: 28 Aug 2025 16:42
Last modified: 18 Oct 2025 01:35

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Contributors

Author: Tommaso Alberti
Author: Fabio Florindo
Author: Valerio Lucarini
Author: Davide Faranda

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