Pupil competence during the COVID-19-induced school closures: an analysis of the effect of distance learning and remediation policies using international assessment data in 30 countries

Abstract

This study analyses the impact of COVID-19-induced school closures on pupils' competence change in reading, mathematics, and science using PISA and PIRLS data from 30 countries and regions. Latent Growth Curve Modelling and Pseudo-Panel Methods are employed to examine pupils’ competence development trajectories and subgroup differences based on gender, socioeconomic status, and immigrant status, highlighting modest but uneven learning losses caused by COVID-induced school closure across three subjects, with reading being more adversely affected than STEM competencies and first-generation immigrant background emerged as a key driver of disparities. Then, this study evaluates the effectiveness of nine distance learning and remediation policies in addressing education disruptions employing Synthetic Difference-in-Difference and Two-way Fixed Effect models. Analysis of the policies' impact on pupils' competence reveals that emergency measures ensuring continuity in distance learning (e.g., distributing digital devices, upgrading IT infrastructure and resources, broadcasting educational content via TV and radio, and providing printed materials) significantly alleviated the digital divide but showed limitations in addressing structural digital inequality. Well-being-oriented policies (e.g., psychological support, parental guidance, and special education assistance) demonstrated strong intervention effects, while post-reopening remedial measures (e.g., extending instructional time and tutoring programs) were particularly effective in promoting learning recovery in STEM subjects. Triple Difference Estimator analysis indicates that these policies were more effective for pupils from low socio-economic backgrounds and second-generation immigrants, with no significant gender differences. The findings provide empirical support for the international community in formulating policies to address education disruption risks, enhance educational equity, and promote inclusiveness.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Yin Wang: orcid.org/0009-0004-9440-2410

ORCID for Nicola Pensiero: orcid.org/0000-0002-2823-9852

ORCID for Tony Kelly: orcid.org/0000-0003-4664-8585

ORCID for Chris Downey: orcid.org/0000-0002-6094-0534

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