The use of force against Taiwan as a contested state: an analysis of legality and great-power politics

Abstract

This chapter employs a multidisciplinary approach, integrating international law and international relations (IR), to examine China’s potential use of force against Taiwan. It first explores how ambiguity and vulnerability— common to contested states facing the threat of force— apply to Taiwan. The chapter then delves deeper into the ambiguity of Taiwan’s status by examining Taiwan’s evolving sovereign features, including de jure and de facto international legal sovereignty, Westphalian sovereignty, and domestic sovereignty. It also highlights Taiwan’s unique material power, which could be advantageous in a conflict with China. From a revisionist legal perspective, it argues that Taiwan qualifies as a rights holder under international law based on self-determination, its longstanding and stable de facto regime, and China’s obligation to resolve disputes peacefully to maintain international security. The chapter also assesses third-party intervention, particularly the U.S. response, in a Taiwan contingency, through a realist IR framework grounded in great-power politics. Although the U.S. has no formal military alliance with Taiwan, its perception of China as a peer competitor increases the likelihood of intervention in a Cross-Strait conflict, although nuclear deterrence will limit the scope of U.S. involvement.

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ORCID for Ming-chin Monique Chu: orcid.org/0000-0001-6646-2310

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