Careers and labor-market stability vs. dynamisms: Using big-data to optimize career trajectories for better outcomes
Careers and labor-market stability vs. dynamisms: Using big-data to optimize career trajectories for better outcomes
In career and human resource management, long-standing questions about career dynamics, and more specifically, how to optimize career progress via dynamic moves or stable employment, remain unresolved. Challenging the myth of career stability in the modern labor market, this study leverages a unique, nation-wide big data set of approximately 3 million Bulgarian workers and 300,000 employers over an 11-year period to definitively answer the long-standing debate about career dynamism. We address conflicting arguments about the existence of substantial contemporary career dynamics. Theoretically, we expand both the boundaryless career and career ecosystem theories, subsequently providing new evidence for key scholarly debates regarding new careers' dynamics and practical advice for individuals. We employed linear probability analysis and sensitivity analysis to test our hypotheses. Our findings reveal a highly fluid environment where less than a third of the workforce experiences career stability. We identify eight distinct clusters of career boundary-crossings (job, employer, and sector changes) and demonstrate that, contrary to traditional views, frequent career moves are often associated with better financial outcomes. Notably, job and employer changes yield significant short-term wage growth and long-term wage increases, while sector changes often lag behind. We also uncover crucial temporal dynamics: the positive wage impact of career transitions amplifies over time, whereas the boost to wage growth is most pronounced immediately after a move. The implications for individual career management, organizational talent strategies, and national labor policies in navigating this dynamic landscape are substantial.
Big data, Career choice, Career transition, Careers, Employer, Human resource management, Job, Labor market, Sector, Wage
Baruch, Yehuda
25b89777-def4-4958-afdc-0ceab43efe8a
Guttormsen, David S.A.
b3f9950b-42dd-44da-8b6a-41642b047408
Gyoshev, Stanley B.
dcc61de5-9aaa-4b67-876a-043cfe80bd03
Pavkov, Trifon
2b341c55-03a0-48a7-a25d-9d381c15c56f
Plescad, Miana
f73d3820-20b7-4519-9422-5da8816784c7
21 October 2025
Baruch, Yehuda
25b89777-def4-4958-afdc-0ceab43efe8a
Guttormsen, David S.A.
b3f9950b-42dd-44da-8b6a-41642b047408
Gyoshev, Stanley B.
dcc61de5-9aaa-4b67-876a-043cfe80bd03
Pavkov, Trifon
2b341c55-03a0-48a7-a25d-9d381c15c56f
Plescad, Miana
f73d3820-20b7-4519-9422-5da8816784c7
Baruch, Yehuda, Guttormsen, David S.A., Gyoshev, Stanley B., Pavkov, Trifon and Plescad, Miana
(2025)
Careers and labor-market stability vs. dynamisms: Using big-data to optimize career trajectories for better outcomes.
Journal of Vocational Behavior, 163, [104180].
(doi:10.1016/j.jvb.2025.104180).
Abstract
In career and human resource management, long-standing questions about career dynamics, and more specifically, how to optimize career progress via dynamic moves or stable employment, remain unresolved. Challenging the myth of career stability in the modern labor market, this study leverages a unique, nation-wide big data set of approximately 3 million Bulgarian workers and 300,000 employers over an 11-year period to definitively answer the long-standing debate about career dynamism. We address conflicting arguments about the existence of substantial contemporary career dynamics. Theoretically, we expand both the boundaryless career and career ecosystem theories, subsequently providing new evidence for key scholarly debates regarding new careers' dynamics and practical advice for individuals. We employed linear probability analysis and sensitivity analysis to test our hypotheses. Our findings reveal a highly fluid environment where less than a third of the workforce experiences career stability. We identify eight distinct clusters of career boundary-crossings (job, employer, and sector changes) and demonstrate that, contrary to traditional views, frequent career moves are often associated with better financial outcomes. Notably, job and employer changes yield significant short-term wage growth and long-term wage increases, while sector changes often lag behind. We also uncover crucial temporal dynamics: the positive wage impact of career transitions amplifies over time, whereas the boost to wage growth is most pronounced immediately after a move. The implications for individual career management, organizational talent strategies, and national labor policies in navigating this dynamic landscape are substantial.
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Accepted/In Press date: 29 September 2025
Published date: 21 October 2025
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Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Authors
Keywords:
Big data, Career choice, Career transition, Careers, Employer, Human resource management, Job, Labor market, Sector, Wage
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 506623
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/506623
ISSN: 0001-8791
PURE UUID: 668c109c-dbd0-4fe8-b9ff-5b292e77b396
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Date deposited: 12 Nov 2025 17:39
Last modified: 13 Nov 2025 02:44
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Contributors
Author:
David S.A. Guttormsen
Author:
Stanley B. Gyoshev
Author:
Trifon Pavkov
Author:
Miana Plescad
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