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Disease and development—the predicted mortality instrument revisited

Disease and development—the predicted mortality instrument revisited
Disease and development—the predicted mortality instrument revisited
This paper revisits Acemoglu-Johnson the predicted mortality instrument. Drawing on a unique historical data set of disease-specific mortality rates, we reconstruct several versions of the instrument that differ in terms of data usage and instrument relevance. Our findings confirm its predictive power on life expectancy. The replication analysis reveals a significant positive second-stage effect of life expectancy on population and total birth rates and a negative effect on GDP per capita for a subset of the revised instruments. Overall, data coverage and empirical tests suggest the superiority of our country-level instrument.
growth, life expectancy, predicted mortality instrument
0883-7252
327-337
Kreitmeir, David
e37ce2ec-91da-4003-bd57-370d357d73e0
Überfuhr, Thomas
d82c261f-50dc-4e77-989a-e5adb87111f7
Kreitmeir, David
e37ce2ec-91da-4003-bd57-370d357d73e0
Überfuhr, Thomas
d82c261f-50dc-4e77-989a-e5adb87111f7

Kreitmeir, David and Überfuhr, Thomas (2024) Disease and development—the predicted mortality instrument revisited. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39 (2), 327-337. (doi:10.1002/jae.3023).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper revisits Acemoglu-Johnson the predicted mortality instrument. Drawing on a unique historical data set of disease-specific mortality rates, we reconstruct several versions of the instrument that differ in terms of data usage and instrument relevance. Our findings confirm its predictive power on life expectancy. The replication analysis reveals a significant positive second-stage effect of life expectancy on population and total birth rates and a negative effect on GDP per capita for a subset of the revised instruments. Overall, data coverage and empirical tests suggest the superiority of our country-level instrument.

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Accepted/In Press date: 30 May 2023
Published date: 12 January 2024
Keywords: growth, life expectancy, predicted mortality instrument

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 506888
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/506888
ISSN: 0883-7252
PURE UUID: 01765d5a-0213-4c62-9b5c-9c1b321b99fd
ORCID for David Kreitmeir: ORCID iD orcid.org/0009-0000-1808-1855

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Date deposited: 19 Nov 2025 17:47
Last modified: 22 Nov 2025 03:18

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Contributors

Author: David Kreitmeir ORCID iD
Author: Thomas Überfuhr

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