The effects of autocratic characteristics on public opinion toward democracy promotion policies: a conjoint analysis
The effects of autocratic characteristics on public opinion toward democracy promotion policies: a conjoint analysis
Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.
economic sanctions, foreign policy, foreign aid, autocracies, authoritarianism, public opinion, US, military attack, conjoint experiment, political institutions, democracy promotion
Escriba-Folch, Abel
728b995b-05ba-40a6-bf5a-934f8be0bb39
Muradova, Lala H.
5f2595b4-c347-4e45-bae5-bb0f5b397fa4
Rodon, Toni
036a3eec-1a69-45b6-b4e5-c10556a29ff1
January 2021
Escriba-Folch, Abel
728b995b-05ba-40a6-bf5a-934f8be0bb39
Muradova, Lala H.
5f2595b4-c347-4e45-bae5-bb0f5b397fa4
Rodon, Toni
036a3eec-1a69-45b6-b4e5-c10556a29ff1
Escriba-Folch, Abel, Muradova, Lala H. and Rodon, Toni
(2021)
The effects of autocratic characteristics on public opinion toward democracy promotion policies: a conjoint analysis.
Foreign Policy Analysis, 17 (1), [oraa016].
(doi:10.1093/fpa/oraa016).
Abstract
Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.
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e-pub ahead of print date: 11 August 2020
Published date: January 2021
Keywords:
economic sanctions, foreign policy, foreign aid, autocracies, authoritarianism, public opinion, US, military attack, conjoint experiment, political institutions, democracy promotion
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Local EPrints ID: 506994
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/506994
PURE UUID: 238e0296-1837-4208-96fa-d4a77eac5d47
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Date deposited: 25 Nov 2025 17:38
Last modified: 26 Nov 2025 03:09
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Contributors
Author:
Abel Escriba-Folch
Author:
Lala H. Muradova
Author:
Toni Rodon
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