Genomic evidence supports the “long chronology” for the peopling of Sahul

Abstract

The timing of the settlement of Sahul – the Pleistocene landmass formed by present-day New Guinea, Australia and Tasmania, that existed until ~9000 years ago (~9 ka) – remains highly contentious. The so-called “long chronology” posits the first main arrivals at ~60–65 ka, whereas a “short chronology” proposes 47–51 ka. Here, we exhaustively analyse an unprecedentedly large mitogenome dataset (n = 2456) encompassing the full range of diversity from the indigenous populations of Australia, New Guinea and Oceania, including a lineage related to those of New Guinea in an archaeological sample from Wallacea. We assess these lineages in the context of variation from Southeast Asia and a re-evaluation of the mitogenome mutation rate, alongside genome-wide and Y-chromosome variation, and archaeological and climatological evidence. In contrast to recent recombinational dating approaches, we find support for the long chronology, suggesting settlement by ~60 ka via at least two distinct routes into Sahul.

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