Consistent response of European summers to the latitudinal temperature gradient over the Holocene

Abstract

The drivers behind the current decadal trend toward longer and more extreme European summers are widely discussed. This is attributed to changes in the mid-latitude summer atmospheric circulation in response to Arctic Amplification and weakening of the latitudinal temperature gradients (LTGs), as well as to reduced aerosol emissions over Europe since the 1980s. However, causal links remain uncertain, limiting confidence in future projections. To gain statistical insights, evidence over periods longer than the instrumental record is necessary. Using seasonally resolved lake sediments, we reconstruct the evolution of the European summer-to-annual ratio over the last ten millennia. Our results indicate that summer weather dominated during the mid-Holocene, with an average of 195 summer days per year—falling within the extreme upper tail of summer distributions in the early- and late-Holocene. The Holocene variability in summer days aligns closely with simulated past changes in the LTG, supporting the hypothesis that dynamical processes influence mid-latitude seasonal weather on decadal to millennial timescales. A 1 °C decrease in LTG would extend the summer season by ~6 days, potentially adding up to 42 summer days by 2100 under a business-as-usual scenario. These findings provide key observational constraints for understanding and projecting seasonal impacts on ecosystems and society.

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ORCID for Ashley. M. Abrook: orcid.org/0000-0002-2645-5535

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