The astrophysical odds of GW151216
The astrophysical odds of GW151216
The gravitational-wave candidate GW151216 is a proposed binary black hole event from the first observing run of the Advanced LIGO detectors. Not identified as a bona fide signal by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration, there is disagreement as to its authenticity, which is quantified by pastro, the probability that the event is astrophysical in origin. Previous estimates of pastro from different groups range from 0.18 to 0.71, making it unclear whether this event should be included in population analyses, which typically require pastro > 0.5. Whether GW151216 is an astrophysical signal or not has implications for the population properties of stellar-mass black holes and hence the evolution of massive stars. Using the astrophysical odds, a Bayesian method that uses the signal coherence between detectors and a parametrized model of non-astrophysical detector noise, we find that pastro = 0.03, suggesting that GW151216 is unlikely to be a genuine signal. We also analyse GW150914 (the first gravitational-wave detection) and GW151012 (initially considered to be an ambiguous detection) and find pastro values of 1 and 0.997, respectively. We argue that the astrophysical odds presented here improve upon traditional methods for distinguishing signals from noise.
gravitational waves
1905-1910
Ashton, Gregory
a8cec4b1-3c98-4b28-af2a-1e37cb3b9f2a
Thrane, Eric
2bafe758-0f64-458f-9f9a-fede9abc343c
11 August 2020
Ashton, Gregory
a8cec4b1-3c98-4b28-af2a-1e37cb3b9f2a
Thrane, Eric
2bafe758-0f64-458f-9f9a-fede9abc343c
Ashton, Gregory and Thrane, Eric
(2020)
The astrophysical odds of GW151216.
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 498 (2), .
(doi:10.1093/mnras/staa2332).
Abstract
The gravitational-wave candidate GW151216 is a proposed binary black hole event from the first observing run of the Advanced LIGO detectors. Not identified as a bona fide signal by the LIGO-Virgo collaboration, there is disagreement as to its authenticity, which is quantified by pastro, the probability that the event is astrophysical in origin. Previous estimates of pastro from different groups range from 0.18 to 0.71, making it unclear whether this event should be included in population analyses, which typically require pastro > 0.5. Whether GW151216 is an astrophysical signal or not has implications for the population properties of stellar-mass black holes and hence the evolution of massive stars. Using the astrophysical odds, a Bayesian method that uses the signal coherence between detectors and a parametrized model of non-astrophysical detector noise, we find that pastro = 0.03, suggesting that GW151216 is unlikely to be a genuine signal. We also analyse GW150914 (the first gravitational-wave detection) and GW151012 (initially considered to be an ambiguous detection) and find pastro values of 1 and 0.997, respectively. We argue that the astrophysical odds presented here improve upon traditional methods for distinguishing signals from noise.
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Published date: 11 August 2020
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Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s) Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.
Keywords:
gravitational waves
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Local EPrints ID: 508012
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/508012
ISSN: 0035-8711
PURE UUID: b3f06b4f-2ff2-4e8f-b548-4f860fcb2189
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Date deposited: 09 Jan 2026 17:45
Last modified: 10 Jan 2026 05:27
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Author:
Gregory Ashton
Author:
Eric Thrane
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