Warming trend in the western Indian Ocean driven by oceanic transport

Abstract

The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the excess heat trapped in the Earth system due to rising greenhouse gas emissions, with upper layers playing a crucial role. This study finds that 35% of the total ocean heat content (OHC) in the western Indian Ocean is stored within the upper 300 m. From 2000 to 2023, this layer shows a significant warming trend of (Formula presented.) over 24 years, making it the only tropical ocean basin with such a persistent rise. In contrast, the net surface heat flux into the ocean shows a declining trend of (Formula presented.) over 24 years, suggesting that direct atmospheric forcing is not the primary driver. Instead, seasonal ocean dynamics explains the observed increase in OHC and surface heat loss. During the winter monsoon, enhanced westward heat transport from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, driven by strengthened northeast monsoon currents, leads to heat accumulation in the western Indian Ocean. In the summer monsoon, the Great Whirl, a large anticyclonic eddy, plays a central role. Although northward heat transport associated with the Great Whirl has weakened, the southward transport has declined more sharply, resulting in net heat gain. Additionally, a northward shift in monsoon winds displaces the Great Whirl closer to the Socotra Islands, altering upwelling patterns and further redistributing heat. These findings underscore the dominant role of ocean circulation in driving long-term upper-ocean warming in the western Indian Ocean, contrasting with the expected influence of surface heat fluxes.

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