Liu, Haiyan, Wang, Jianghao, Cheng, Zhifeng, Wang, Siqin, Hawker, Laurence, Han, Jiatong, Ashworth, Philip Anthony, Darby, Steve, Chan, Faith Ka Shun, Liu, Jian, Tatem, Andrew and Lai, Shengjie (2026) Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones. Global Environmental Change, 96, [103111]. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111).
Abstract
Multi-hazard early-warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and enhancing disaster resilience. However, quantitative empirical evidence on how different types of early warnings individually and collectively trigger preventive actions and influence resilience remains limited. Here, using location-based human mobility data aggregated from over 1.1 billion mobile devices across Chinese cities, we quantified daily intracity human mobility responses to 21,126 early warning signals during 19 tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2021 to 2023. To represent disaster resilience under MHEWS protection, we developed a protected resilience index that integrates both the magnitude of mobility changes and recovery durations. We found that, compared with city-level TC warnings alone, combined multi-level, multi-hazard warnings resulted in a 52.4 % reduction in mobility during TC exposure days, thereby increasing avoided direct population exposure by around 57.1 %. Each additional warning type further shortened recovery times, collectively reducing recovery durations by at least 55.6 %, with larger effects observed for stronger TCs. Under MHEWS protection, protected resilience remained statistically similar between moderate-intensity TCs (34 kt and 50 kt) but declined significantly under severe (≥64 kt) conditions. Although absolute reductions in exposure were greater in high-frequency, coastal, and wealthier cities, relative improvements from MHEWS were more pronounced in less frequently affected, inland, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Consequently, MHEWS significantly narrowed resilience disparities among cities facing equivalent hazard exposures. This study introduces a scalable, behaviour-based framework for quantifying early-warning effectiveness, highlighting the essential role of integrated multi-level and multi-hazard warnings in disaster preparedness across cities amid escalating climate risks.
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