Information on public opinion has lasting effects on second-order climate beliefs, but minimal and ephemeral effects on first-order beliefs

Abstract

Across western democracies, pro-climate beliefs are widespread. Yet, vocal minorities contest scientific consensus about global warming. Perhaps as a consequence, the extent to which the public accepts global warming and climate action is often underestimated. Correcting this perceptual deficit has been proposed as a promising way to strengthen climate action, since knowledge of broad public consensus could motivate environmentally friendly behaviours, increase support for policy interventions, or shift perceptions of political feasibility. In a preregistered two-wave survey experiment in Germany, we provide a novel test of this strategy in a national context with already high pro-climate support, using real and comprehensive public opinion data. We find that exposure to this information can produce a lasting, significant increase in second-order beliefs (perceptions of public opinion) two weeks after treatment, especially among those who initially underestimated public support. However, the effects on first-order outcomes—policy feasibility perceptions, attitudes, and behavioural intentions—are small, short-lived, and largely non-significant. By demonstrating the boundary conditions of second-order interventions, our study suggests that their promise may be more limited than often assumed. These findings may highlight the potential need for more targeted, repeated, and context-sensitive approaches if second-order information is to meaningfully shift climate beliefs and behaviours.

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ORCID for Jason Reifler: orcid.org/0000-0002-1116-7346

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