Risk, crisis, and rights: the case of Venezuelan forced migration in Colombia

Abstract

This thesis examines how risk management can support the promotion of human rights during crises, through an in-depth analysis of Colombia’s response to the arrival of over three million Venezuelan migrants between 2015 and 2024. By integrating theoretical and empirical perspectives, the study challenges the commonly held assumption that human rights and crisis management are inherently incompatible. Drawing on the literature on crisis and risk management, it builds both a conceptual and empirical bridge between these fields and the domain of human rights. It proposes a conceptual framework—the Risk-Crisis-Rights (RCR) model—which reconceptualises crisis as the materialisation of risk, and integrates risk management, crisis response, and rights protection into a unified framework.

The research adopts a qualitative case study approach, combining documentary analysis with elite interviews involving policymakers, scholars, and experts engaged in Colombia’s migration response. The analysis is guided by the framework proposed by Ansell and Boin (2019) on the use of pragmatist principles in conducting strategic tasks, which is applied to assess the effectiveness of Colombia’s response across four critical periods, each characterised by distinct drivers, narratives, and labels. These elements constitute the subjective dimension of crisis, which plays a decisive role in shaping how governments understand and respond to disruptive events.

The findings reveal that Colombia adopted a largely pragmatist and rights-oriented approach between 2015 and 2022. Mechanisms such as the Special Stay Permits (PEP), and the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) facilitated the progressive realisation of rights. These instruments were developed through deliberative, adaptive processes that reflected an evolving understanding of migration. This period was marked by continuity in public policy, cross-sectoral coordination, and leadership that fostered institutional learning and capacity-building. By contrast, the post-2022 period saw a dismantling of coordination structures and a decline in the state’s ability to guarantee rights, illustrating the fragile and reversible nature of rights protections.

The thesis makes several key contributions. Conceptually, it offers a new model (RCR) for understanding the interdependencies between risk, crisis, and rights—one that can inform more integrated and rights-oriented approaches to crisis governance. Theoretically, it revises the definitions of risk and crisis, introducing the concept of Non Trade-off Risks (NTRs). It also critiques the prevailing framing of migration as a crisis in itself, arguing instead that it is the inadequacy of state responses that generates crisis conditions. Additionally, it redefines the capacities required for effective crisis response, incorporating legal and bureaucratic frameworks. Empirically, the thesis offers a detailed account of Colombia’s migration governance, providing lessons for the management of transboundary and protracted crises.

In sum, this thesis challenges the perceived incompatibility between crisis response and human rights. It shows that, through pragmatic action, it is possible to meet urgent needs while upholding fundamental rights, even under conditions of crisis. It contributes to both academic literature and policy practice on migration, risk, crisis, human rights, and public administration.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Natalia Trujillo Rendon: orcid.org/0000-0003-0248-7775

ORCID for Will Jennings: orcid.org/0000-0001-9007-8896

ORCID for Pia Riggirozzi: orcid.org/0000-0001-5809-890X

ORCID for Konstantinos Katsikopoulos: orcid.org/0000-0002-9572-1980

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