COVID-19 and urban exodus: diverging population redistribution patterns across countries from 2020 to 2022

Abstract

While widespread urbanisation continues, emerging trends of population redistribution away from highly urbanised areas have been observed in some countries, with important implications for infrastructure planning, resource allocation, and environmental risk assessment. However, few studies have examined this trend in a timely and spatially comprehensive manner across diverse national contexts, particularly in response to the turbulence in migration patterns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we analyse spatial Facebook population data from 2020 to 2022 across 35 countries to characterise two forms of population redistribution: shifts between urban and rural areas, and changes along the urban density gradient. During the early response phase of the pandemic, broader country-level trends of urban-to-rural redistribution and intra-urban deconcentration were evident. However, 20% and 4.8% of these trends, respectively, were temporary and reversed during the later phase of the pandemic. The extent and direction of these patterns varied across countries and were negatively associated with the Human Development Index, suggesting that developed nations experienced greater urban depopulation and spatial deconcentration. Our findings reveal a potential misalignment between population redistribution and existing physical urban densities in certain countries, as densely built-up areas are experiencing outflows, highlighting the need for adaptive urban planning strategies to address evolving population dynamics and related sustainability challenges.

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Identifiers

ORCID for Qianwen Duan: orcid.org/0000-0003-4342-5044

ORCID for Shengjie Lai: orcid.org/0000-0001-9781-8148

ORCID for Andrew Tatem: orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-941X

ORCID for Felix Eigenbrod: orcid.org/0000-0001-8982-824X

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