Risk and uncertainty in sustainable building performance

Sajjadian, Seyed Masoud, Lewis, John and Sharples, Stephen (2013) Risk and uncertainty in sustainable building performance. In Sustainability in Energy and Buildings. vol. 22, 903–912 . (doi:10.1007/978-3-642-36645-1_80).

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Decision-making in the design of sustainable building envelopes will mostly consider the trade-off between initial cost and energy savings. However, this leads to an insufficiently holistic approach to the assessment of the sustainable performance of the building envelope. Moreover, the decisions that designers face are subject to uncertainties and risks with regards to design variations. This research examines a range of concepts and definitions of risk, uncertainty and sustainability in the context of climate, building construction and overheating. These concepts are then combined to objectify a range of risks and uncertainties affecting the decision. A simple computer model was used to analyze different building cladding constructions in terms of an overheating risk inside a building. The paper concludes by considering how the cladding materials may be chosen to optimize a model that will aid decision-making in design. The research suggests that none of the cladding systems would completely eliminate the risk of overheating for a range of climate change scenarios.

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