Impact of cascading failures on shipping network resilience

Cao, Yuhao, Xin, Xuri, Li, Huanhuan, Wang, Xinjian, Wang, Jin and Yang, Zaili (2025) Impact of cascading failures on shipping network resilience. In 2025 8th International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS). IEEE.. (doi:10.1109/ictis68762.2025.11214903).

Abstract

Resilient shipping networks are essential for reliable and effective global maritime logistics. However, the increasing interconnection and complexity have diminished resilience, leaving systems more susceptible to unexpected interruptions. These interruptions, including pandemics and regional conflicts, often trigger load redistribution through interconnected sailing routes, resulting in cascading failures. While many load-capacity models have been employed to simulate these disruptions, they typically focus on static, one-off redistribution scenarios, failing to capture the dynamic nature of such events. To address these limitations, this study develops a novel approach to simulating cascading failures, for providing a more dynamic and comprehensive assessment of the cascading impact of port disruptions on the resilience of shipping networks. The proposed framework incorporates an iterative method to achieve an approximately equilibrated redistribution of loads within the network. Meanwhile, a new dynamic cost function, incorporating both distance and port capacity characteristics, is designed to balance the benefits for carriers, shippers, and ports by iteratively updating costs. Subsequently, two metrics are proposed to measure the resilience from the perspectives of structure and function. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the European Container Shipping Network (ECSN) is used as a case study. The results demonstrate that load redistribution using the iterative model effectively mitigates the severity of deep cascading failures. Furthermore, maintaining adequate reserve capacity at critical ports is also identified as a key contributor to enhancing network resilience. These findings offer new insights for stakeholders involved in port and logistics management, highlighting the importance of proactive risk management and strategic infrastructure planning to bolster the resilience of shipping networks against unforeseen disruptions.

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Contributors

Author: Huanhuan Li

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