Cost-based dynamic risk analysis of offshore wind turbines

Li, Ruoxuan, Kong, Xiangyu, Li, He, Yang, Zaili, Gkantou, Michaela, Ye, Hong-Xu, Li, Huanhuan and Wang, Jin (2026) Cost-based dynamic risk analysis of offshore wind turbines. Applied Ocean Research, 170, [105057]. (doi:10.1016/j.apor.2026.105057).

Abstract

This paper proposes a cost-based dynamic risk model for offshore wind turbines, leveraging reliability and maintenance data from real offshore wind farms. The model integrates information on wind farm configurations into failure cost modelling and as a basis of that quantifies time-varying failure probabilities and consequences of onsite failures. The model enables dynamic and comparable risk assessment among various offshore wind farms. Results reveal that the auxiliary system represents the highest economic risk, particularly during winter months, and that increasing the distance to the onshore maintenance base leads to a greater rise in system and component risk than simply increasing turbine capacity. The feasibility and advantages of the proposed method are validated through systematic comparative analysis with existing approaches. Overall, this research provides a robust framework for cost-based dynamic risk analysis, supporting economically informed decision-making and season-specific maintenance strategies for offshore wind farms.

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Contributors

Author: Huanhuan Li

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