Integrating spatio-temporal analysis for assessing the effectiveness of POLARIS in Arctic shipping traffic

Shu, Yaqing, Xu, Wenyang, Cui, Hailong, Xiao, Jinli, Song, Lan, Li, Huanhuan and Yang, Zaili (2026) Integrating spatio-temporal analysis for assessing the effectiveness of POLARIS in Arctic shipping traffic. Transport Policy, 181, [104096]. (doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104096).

Abstract

The annual reduction in Arctic sea ice extent has driven a steady increase in shipping activity, which has raised requirements for the safety and management of ships in the Arctic. To address these challenges, the International Maritime Organization published the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), which introduces a sea ice risk quantification model and proposes operational restrictions for ships under different ice conditions. In this study, Automatic Identification System and sea ice data from 2018 to 2022 in the Arctic were spatio-temporally correlated to assess the effectiveness of the POLARIS in guiding ship navigation. The findings reveal that ship trajectories and speeds are significantly influenced by sea ice conditions, and that non-compliance with the POLARIS is evident among ice-class ships. In high-risk operating waters, the non-compliance rate of PC4, PC6, and PC7 ice-class ships is nearly 70%, and the median exceedance magnitude is approximately 3.25 kn. By analyzing non-compliance events and ships entering areas requiring special operations, high-incidence areas of non-compliance for ice-class ships were found, with the highest-incidence areas occurring in the Kara Strait and in the area northwest of Svalbard. Temporally, most non-compliance events were concentrated between January and June, and again in December. These results indicate that the POLARIS may require revision to better reflect and support real-world navigational behavior in Arctic waters and to account for ship-specific risk factors. This study provides a critical theoretical policy-making solution to improving the POLARIS, thereby enhancing ship safety and the effectiveness of regulations in ice-covered waters.

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Contributors

Author: Huanhuan Li

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