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Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade

Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade
Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade
This paper reports on a model building process developed to enable multiple audiences, particularly non-experts, to appreciate the validity of the models being built and their outcomes. The process is a four stage reversible cascade. This cascade provides a structured, auditable/transparent, formalized process from “real world” interviews generating a rich qualitative model through two intermediate steps before arriving at a quantitative simulation model. There are a number of advantages of the cascade process including; achieving comprehensiveness, developing organizational learning, testing the veracity of multiple perspectives, modeling transparency, achieving common understanding across many audiences and promoting confidence building in the models. The paper, based on extensive work with organizations, discusses both the cascade process and its inherent benefits.
simulation, validity, cognitive mapping, cause mapping
0377-2217
1068-1083
Howick, Susan
8d6f3878-ad7f-4a56-b134-dc16c338565b
Eden, Colin
db5ed969-1735-4ad2-8694-fafb5c06686b
Ackermann, Fran
de3bfd09-472a-44ee-9adb-d32b0c0b3291
Williams, Terry
085e6e3e-f94e-435c-936e-82fb0c5c4ae8
Howick, Susan
8d6f3878-ad7f-4a56-b134-dc16c338565b
Eden, Colin
db5ed969-1735-4ad2-8694-fafb5c06686b
Ackermann, Fran
de3bfd09-472a-44ee-9adb-d32b0c0b3291
Williams, Terry
085e6e3e-f94e-435c-936e-82fb0c5c4ae8

Howick, Susan, Eden, Colin, Ackermann, Fran and Williams, Terry (2008) Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade. European Journal of Operational Research, 186 (3), 1068-1083. (doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2007.02.027).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper reports on a model building process developed to enable multiple audiences, particularly non-experts, to appreciate the validity of the models being built and their outcomes. The process is a four stage reversible cascade. This cascade provides a structured, auditable/transparent, formalized process from “real world” interviews generating a rich qualitative model through two intermediate steps before arriving at a quantitative simulation model. There are a number of advantages of the cascade process including; achieving comprehensiveness, developing organizational learning, testing the veracity of multiple perspectives, modeling transparency, achieving common understanding across many audiences and promoting confidence building in the models. The paper, based on extensive work with organizations, discusses both the cascade process and its inherent benefits.

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More information

e-pub ahead of print date: 23 March 2007
Published date: 1 May 2008
Keywords: simulation, validity, cognitive mapping, cause mapping

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 51630
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/51630
ISSN: 0377-2217
PURE UUID: 37a482cb-91b3-44fe-8344-2c6b452e0887

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Date deposited: 06 Jun 2008
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 10:18

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Contributors

Author: Susan Howick
Author: Colin Eden
Author: Fran Ackermann
Author: Terry Williams

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