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Advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic horse race wagering pools advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic wagers

Advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic horse race wagering pools advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic wagers
Advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic horse race wagering pools advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic wagers
Advanced computer based horse race betting systems typically rely on an elaborate statistical model to produce a full set of probability estimates for each possible order of finish. These estimates allow practitioners to calculate theoretically optimal bets based on either the Kelly Criterion of maximal rate of increase of wealth or on the Isaacs criterion of maximum expected returns.

In the case of simple bets involving up to two horses, the list of positive expectation bets is usually less than a few dozen and there is usually sufficient time between races to place the entire “optimal” list of bets. However, in the case of bets involving specifying the order of finish of three or more horses, often spread across multiple races, the list of recommended bets can range into the hundreds of thousands, while practical considerations usually limit the number of bets to at most a few hundred.

Most racetracks offer various methods of combining multiple individual bets into a single betting instruction such as multiple, bankered, or field bets. A challenge for computer bettors is to devise algorithms for condensing an original long list of “optimal”individual wagers into a much shorter list of combined bets. The very high combinatorial complexity of this problem rules out an exhaustive “brute force” approach even on today’s fastest computers.
Benter, B.
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Benter, B.
bfedaa53-dbfc-4298-b65a-c6121c1d2f93

Benter, B. (2006) Advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic horse race wagering pools advanced betting algorithms for highly exotic wagers. 13th International Conference on Risk and Gambling and Risk Taking. 01 Jan 2006.

Record type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)

Abstract

Advanced computer based horse race betting systems typically rely on an elaborate statistical model to produce a full set of probability estimates for each possible order of finish. These estimates allow practitioners to calculate theoretically optimal bets based on either the Kelly Criterion of maximal rate of increase of wealth or on the Isaacs criterion of maximum expected returns.

In the case of simple bets involving up to two horses, the list of positive expectation bets is usually less than a few dozen and there is usually sufficient time between races to place the entire “optimal” list of bets. However, in the case of bets involving specifying the order of finish of three or more horses, often spread across multiple races, the list of recommended bets can range into the hundreds of thousands, while practical considerations usually limit the number of bets to at most a few hundred.

Most racetracks offer various methods of combining multiple individual bets into a single betting instruction such as multiple, bankered, or field bets. A challenge for computer bettors is to devise algorithms for condensing an original long list of “optimal”individual wagers into a much shorter list of combined bets. The very high combinatorial complexity of this problem rules out an exhaustive “brute force” approach even on today’s fastest computers.

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More information

Published date: 2006
Venue - Dates: 13th International Conference on Risk and Gambling and Risk Taking, 2006-01-01 - 2006-01-01

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 51683
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/51683
PURE UUID: de154572-9947-433b-9402-a03f3b762221

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Date deposited: 29 Aug 2008
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 20:48

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