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Five reasons for measuring period fertility

Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire (2008) Five reasons for measuring period fertility , Southampton, UK Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute 58pp. (S3RI Applications & Policy Working Papers, A08/05).

Record type: Monograph (Working Paper)

Abstract

Five reasons for measuring period fertility are distinguished: to describe fertility time trends, to explain these, to anticipate future population prospects, to provide input parameters for formal models, and to communicate with non-specialist audiences. The paper argues that not all measures are suitable for each purpose, and that tempo adjustment may be appropriate for some objectives but not others. In particular, it is argued that genuine timing effects do not bias or distort measures of period fertility as dependent variable. Several different concepts of bias or distortion are identified in relation to period fertility measures. Synthetic cohort indicators are a source of confusion since they conflate measurement and forecasting. Anticipating future fertility is more akin to forecasting than to measurement. Greater clarity about concepts and measures in the fertility arena could be achieved by a stronger emphasis on validation. Period incidence and occurrence-exposure rates have a straightforward interpretation. More complex period fertility measures are meaningful only if a direct or indirect criterion can be specified against which to evaluate them. Their performance against that criterion is what establishes them as valid or useful. Discussion of tempo adjustment and allied issues in demographic measurement might profit from the development of a theory of measurement in demography, comparable to the axiomatic systems devised in e.g. physics, psychology and some areas of economics such as price index theory.

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More information

Submitted date: 26 June 2008
Additional Information: This paper supersedes S3RI working paper A07/04.

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 52411
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/52411
PURE UUID: 6973bc9a-320e-4739-92ea-2214ad389628

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Date deposited: 26 Jun 2008
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 14:40

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Contributors

Author: Máire Ní Bhrolcháin

University divisions

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