Capturing geomorphological change in the coastal simulator

Nicholls, R.J., Hanson, S., Balson, P., Brown, I., French, J. and Spencer, T. (2006) Capturing geomorphological change in the coastal simulator (Tyndell Research Project T3.42, 46) Norwich, UK. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research 70pp.

Abstract

The Tyndall Centre’s Regional Coastal Simulator aims to provide an integrated perspective on the impact of climate change on the coastal zone at the regional (e.g. East Anglian) scale, including taking account of the choices available for shoreline management. Coastal geomorphology is fundamental to both prediction and understanding of the ecological and social implications of climate change but the application of process-based modelling at broad-scales remain relatively limited due to the complexity of the systems involved. This project aimed to explore a more deductive methodology for geomorphological
analysis at the regional scale incorporating expert knowledge and understanding. This involved the development of a modifiable generic classification capable of including the impacts of different management scenarios - by definition of the active coastal system - and the integration of expert opinion, using the concepts of possibility and probability within fuzzy logic, on the potential future response of elements within the classification to changes in sea level. Applied to the East Anglian coast, this approach has identified broad patterns of shoreline retreat accompanied by narrowing of beaches and barriers in response to increases in the rate of sea-level rise and/or the proportion of defended coast. Hence, shoreline management has a profound effect on future coastal evolution, highlighting the significant potential for guiding future coastal evolution towards preferred outcomes. While this approach produces a robust qualitative assessment of change, further work is required to investigate suitable techniques for translating outcomes in to a computational form suitable for the prototype Coastal Simulator which maintain the probabilistic aspects of the approach.

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Contributors

Author: R.J. Nicholls

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