Metrics for assessing the economic benefits of climate change policies: sea-level rise

Nicholls, R.J., Hanson, S, Lowe, J.A., Vaughan, D.A., Lenton, T., Ganopolski, A., Tol, R.S.J. and Vafeidis, A.T. (2006) Metrics for assessing the economic benefits of climate change policies: sea-level rise Paris, France. Organisation for Economic and Co-operative and Development 128pp.

Abstract

Climate policy decisions made in the 21st century will have a major influence on sea levels over the next 500 years and even longer. It has been known for at least 15 years that sea-level rise is relatively unresponsive to the mitigation of climate change when compared to other climate factors. This “commitment to sea-level rise” will continue for centuries or longer and in the worst case the rise could be 9 m by 2500 if exacerbated by processes such as the irreversible deglaciation of the large Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.
The potential impacts of this sea-level rise are significant with substantial areas of the globe at high risk of increased rates of erosion, storm damage, saltwater intrusion and most particularly increased flooding and submergence by the sea – as many as 500 million people could be impacted just based on present population. However, these impacts lie beyond the normal time frame of climate impact assessment which focuses on the 21st Century. While the impacts are potentially massive they tend to be discounted by the policy process as too speculative and uncertain to be addressed.
A scoping survey of those with an interest in the coastal zone identified a series of metrics which were felt to be of most use when assessing and communicating sea-level rise impacts. The development of alternative management approaches was also identified as an important aspect of managing for sea-level rise.

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Contributors

Author: R.J. Nicholls

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