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Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise

Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise
Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise
ABSTRACT There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West- Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5–6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam–Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
Sea level rise, West-Antarctic ice sheet, adaptation
1366-9877
467-482
Tol, Richard S.J
41ed2283-3b80-45d8-b775-f6b6f12ec394
Bohn, Maria
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Downing, Thomas E.
deb035bb-9b3b-4aaf-b256-e460be777054
Guillerminet, Marie-Laure
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Hizsnyik, Eva
c4d01a9a-04b8-4f0b-adb8-7762cee59e73
Kasperon, Roger.
a4f903d2-e639-4b63-99e9-cb1a3af4d86e
Lonsdale, Kate
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Mays, Claire
be078b13-3b94-4bee-a8b0-088f57311ebe
Nicholls, Robert. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Olsthroon, Alexander A.
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Pfeifle, Gabrielle
99df7bd1-fbc1-419f-a1e8-6d95064e9840
Poumadere, Marc
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Toth, Ferenc L
b10d3eea-ea17-4d51-9155-e07e4e17f2dd
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
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Van der Werff, Peter E.
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Hakan Yetkiner, I
b3863653-a178-4c7e-98ec-cd9a215eec53
Tol, Richard S.J
41ed2283-3b80-45d8-b775-f6b6f12ec394
Bohn, Maria
30c990bf-254b-4c0b-a4cd-e46d45acc200
Downing, Thomas E.
deb035bb-9b3b-4aaf-b256-e460be777054
Guillerminet, Marie-Laure
92faf277-1b58-4329-ac96-1710e2e3a910
Hizsnyik, Eva
c4d01a9a-04b8-4f0b-adb8-7762cee59e73
Kasperon, Roger.
a4f903d2-e639-4b63-99e9-cb1a3af4d86e
Lonsdale, Kate
c122d235-1d73-4dc7-b32c-d0a81f338a1a
Mays, Claire
be078b13-3b94-4bee-a8b0-088f57311ebe
Nicholls, Robert. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Olsthroon, Alexander A.
60ba451a-b3ff-4cf1-bd27-e46f2aa0ace1
Pfeifle, Gabrielle
99df7bd1-fbc1-419f-a1e8-6d95064e9840
Poumadere, Marc
6172199e-2fac-46e7-8c61-0ea28ea76eaa
Toth, Ferenc L
b10d3eea-ea17-4d51-9155-e07e4e17f2dd
Vafeidis, Athanasios T.
4b11a988-6eb8-4732-bc1b-aa67a2862ea4
Van der Werff, Peter E.
0f944b20-68cc-48ff-886c-946647140481
Hakan Yetkiner, I
b3863653-a178-4c7e-98ec-cd9a215eec53

Tol, Richard S.J, Bohn, Maria, Downing, Thomas E., Guillerminet, Marie-Laure, Hizsnyik, Eva, Kasperon, Roger., Lonsdale, Kate, Mays, Claire, Nicholls, Robert. J., Olsthroon, Alexander A., Pfeifle, Gabrielle, Poumadere, Marc, Toth, Ferenc L, Vafeidis, Athanasios T., Van der Werff, Peter E. and Hakan Yetkiner, I (2006) Adaptation to Five Metres of Sea Level Rise. Journal of Risk Research, 9 (5), 467-482. (doi:10.1080/13669870600717632).

Record type: Article

Abstract

ABSTRACT There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West- Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5–6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam–Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction.

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More information

Published date: July 2006
Keywords: Sea level rise, West-Antarctic ice sheet, adaptation

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 53507
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/53507
ISSN: 1366-9877
PURE UUID: e46bf97d-94e6-4d56-9429-57134257fec4
ORCID for Robert. J. Nicholls: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9715-1109

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Date deposited: 22 Jul 2008
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:36

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Contributors

Author: Richard S.J Tol
Author: Maria Bohn
Author: Thomas E. Downing
Author: Marie-Laure Guillerminet
Author: Eva Hizsnyik
Author: Roger. Kasperon
Author: Kate Lonsdale
Author: Claire Mays
Author: Alexander A. Olsthroon
Author: Gabrielle Pfeifle
Author: Marc Poumadere
Author: Ferenc L Toth
Author: Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Author: Peter E. Van der Werff
Author: I Hakan Yetkiner

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