A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: part II. results
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: part II. results
The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such output.
43-73
Holman, I.P.
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Nicholls, R. J.
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Berry, P. M.
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Harrison, P. A.
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Audsley, E.
776a7eb6-e116-49a3-a2cc-3c1511f9d94c
Shackley, S.
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Rounsevell, M. D. A.
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12 August 2005
Holman, I.P.
06e20a88-df6c-4f4c-9b1f-d68fbba0760a
Nicholls, R. J.
4ce1e355-cc5d-4702-8124-820932c57076
Berry, P. M.
b5baff2c-079b-4637-bb0f-97e25580b498
Harrison, P. A.
ad076b38-6b18-49c9-bc34-016febf7acdf
Audsley, E.
776a7eb6-e116-49a3-a2cc-3c1511f9d94c
Shackley, S.
150d8f76-bb34-4023-bc9e-babe7b68b7c7
Rounsevell, M. D. A.
1ad40c97-9123-4307-9652-8cb3b6eeada5
Holman, I.P., Nicholls, R. J., Berry, P. M., Harrison, P. A., Audsley, E., Shackley, S. and Rounsevell, M. D. A.
(2005)
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: part II. results.
Climatic Change, 71 (1-2), .
(doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5956-6).
Abstract
The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such output.
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Submitted date: 4 May 2004
Published date: 12 August 2005
Additional Information:
Holman I.P., Nicholls R. J., Berry P.M., Harrison P.A., Audsley E., Shackley S., Rounsevell M.D.A., (2005). "A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: part II. results." Climatic Change, 71 (1-2), 43-73
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Local EPrints ID: 53512
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/53512
ISSN: 0165-0009
PURE UUID: e5282d3e-a716-4092-bbe2-2d0c9efe050f
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Date deposited: 22 Jul 2008
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:36
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Author:
I.P. Holman
Author:
P. M. Berry
Author:
P. A. Harrison
Author:
E. Audsley
Author:
S. Shackley
Author:
M. D. A. Rounsevell
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