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Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy
Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy
Many studies have predicted the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions at large spatial scales, yet the role of more local-scale effects remains poorly explored. Addressing more localised impacts requires that new integrated modelling approaches are developed to address fine-scale processes including species’ dispersal and local connectivity. Here we integrate four models (a continental scale bioclimatic envelope model, a regional scale bioclimate and land use suitability model, a dispersal model, and a connectivity model) in a scale-dependent hierarchical framework. The approach has been used to analyse the fine scale impacts of climate change on species’ distributions within two contrasting case study regions located in East Anglia (UK) and Almeria (Spain). Eight and six species respectively were used to test our approach under three climate change scenarios. Despite the uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach, our analyses suggest two general conclusions: (i) climate change involves the development of transient conditions and fragmentation within the core of species distributions; (ii) climate change would favour the opening of gaps within the current vegetation zones, rather than a simple zonal shift of them. Dynamic and integrated conservation policies are required, that take account of the current and potential future spatial arrangement of species and their habitats, to assist species to respond to future environmental change.
species’ distributions, climate change, land use, connectivity, fragmentation, scale
129-147
del Barrio, G.
a62e1e51-ecba-4d90-8db3-7c3d360a004a
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Butt, N.
b6424069-5483-4326-9de4-eb0b0df3e942
Sanjuan, M.E.
60f1be1a-32d5-4089-bf6e-cc2cc4a99309
Pearson, R.G.
394fe6a1-9c88-47cc-b30e-5f563ea1c9aa
Dawson, T.P.
e85a1b83-5770-4fcb-bc16-c09338b40e19
del Barrio, G.
a62e1e51-ecba-4d90-8db3-7c3d360a004a
Harrison, P.A.
bb74e43a-4205-47db-947d-8e2531b52497
Berry, P.M.
b8005d23-1fd5-493a-8a28-927538ea52ec
Butt, N.
b6424069-5483-4326-9de4-eb0b0df3e942
Sanjuan, M.E.
60f1be1a-32d5-4089-bf6e-cc2cc4a99309
Pearson, R.G.
394fe6a1-9c88-47cc-b30e-5f563ea1c9aa
Dawson, T.P.
e85a1b83-5770-4fcb-bc16-c09338b40e19

del Barrio, G., Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt, N., Sanjuan, M.E., Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P. (2006) Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy. Environmental Science & Policy, 9 (2), 129-147. (doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Many studies have predicted the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions at large spatial scales, yet the role of more local-scale effects remains poorly explored. Addressing more localised impacts requires that new integrated modelling approaches are developed to address fine-scale processes including species’ dispersal and local connectivity. Here we integrate four models (a continental scale bioclimatic envelope model, a regional scale bioclimate and land use suitability model, a dispersal model, and a connectivity model) in a scale-dependent hierarchical framework. The approach has been used to analyse the fine scale impacts of climate change on species’ distributions within two contrasting case study regions located in East Anglia (UK) and Almeria (Spain). Eight and six species respectively were used to test our approach under three climate change scenarios. Despite the uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach, our analyses suggest two general conclusions: (i) climate change involves the development of transient conditions and fragmentation within the core of species distributions; (ii) climate change would favour the opening of gaps within the current vegetation zones, rather than a simple zonal shift of them. Dynamic and integrated conservation policies are required, that take account of the current and potential future spatial arrangement of species and their habitats, to assist species to respond to future environmental change.

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More information

Published date: April 2006
Keywords: species’ distributions, climate change, land use, connectivity, fragmentation, scale

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 58474
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/58474
PURE UUID: 2f26f9e4-55bd-4527-b440-840144180d7a

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Date deposited: 14 Aug 2008
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 20:32

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