The University of Southampton
University of Southampton Institutional Repository

Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

del Barrio, G., Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M., Butt, N., Sanjuan, M.E., Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P. (2006) Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy Environmental Science & Policy, 9, (2), pp. 129-147. (doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Many studies have predicted the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions at large spatial scales, yet the role of more local-scale effects remains poorly explored. Addressing more localised impacts requires that new integrated modelling approaches are developed to address fine-scale processes including species’ dispersal and local connectivity. Here we integrate four models (a continental scale bioclimatic envelope model, a regional scale bioclimate and land use suitability model, a dispersal model, and a connectivity model) in a scale-dependent hierarchical framework. The approach has been used to analyse the fine scale impacts of climate change on species’ distributions within two contrasting case study regions located in East Anglia (UK) and Almeria (Spain). Eight and six species respectively were used to test our approach under three climate change scenarios. Despite the uncertainties inherent in the modelling approach, our analyses suggest two general conclusions: (i) climate change involves the development of transient conditions and fragmentation within the core of species distributions; (ii) climate change would favour the opening of gaps within the current vegetation zones, rather than a simple zonal shift of them. Dynamic and integrated conservation policies are required, that take account of the current and potential future spatial arrangement of species and their habitats, to assist species to respond to future environmental change.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: April 2006
Keywords: species’ distributions, climate change, land use, connectivity, fragmentation, scale

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 58474
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/58474
PURE UUID: 2f26f9e4-55bd-4527-b440-840144180d7a

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 14 Aug 2008
Last modified: 17 Jul 2017 14:26

Export record

Altmetrics

Contributors

Author: G. del Barrio
Author: P.A. Harrison
Author: P.M. Berry
Author: N. Butt
Author: M.E. Sanjuan
Author: R.G. Pearson
Author: T.P. Dawson

University divisions

Download statistics

Downloads from ePrints over the past year. Other digital versions may also be available to download e.g. from the publisher's website.

View more statistics

Atom RSS 1.0 RSS 2.0

Contact ePrints Soton: eprints@soton.ac.uk

ePrints Soton supports OAI 2.0 with a base URL of http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/cgi/oai2

This repository has been built using EPrints software, developed at the University of Southampton, but available to everyone to use.

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue without changing your settings, we will assume that you are happy to receive cookies on the University of Southampton website.

×