Trends in stomach and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in England and Wales, 1951-2000
Trends in stomach and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in England and Wales, 1951-2000
Background: The aim of this study was to describe period and cohort effects in incidence and mortality of stomach and pancreatic cancer in England and Wales.
Methods: National figures for mortality (1951-2000) and incidence (1971-2000) were analysed using log-linear Poisson regression models to obtain relative risks (RR) for period (year of incidence or death) and cohort (year of birth).
Results: Stomach cancer shows a pronounced cohort effect in mortality with a decline in RR in men from 2.20 (1876) to 0.47 (1946) and a reduction from 2.79 to 0.41 for women. Mortality to incidence ratios are now less than 0.70. Pancreatic cancer mortality (men) RR rose from 0.91 (1951-1955) to a peak 1.11 (1976-1980) and then declined to 0.90 (1996-2000). Women showed a similar pattern. Cohort RR (men) increased to a peak of 1.14 in 1916 and declined to 1.01 in 1946, and continued to fall; the peak occurred slightly later in women. Mortality to incidence ratios were near 1 in the first 20 years, declining to 0.95 in the last 10 years.
Conclusion: Stomach cancer incidence has fallen continuously from 19(th) century birth cohorts onwards. Incidence of pancreatic cancer has fallen in successive birth cohorts after 1920; peak period risk was 1976-1990. Age-standardized mortality and case mortality for pancreatic cancer are declining.
mortality, gastric-cancer, risk-factors, epidemiology, cardia, time, model, randomized-trial, europe, helicobacter-pylori infection, smoking, women, cohort, cancer, survival, risk, risks, death, models
1162-1171
Fitzsimmons, D.
ad5cd3da-d85b-46d1-a31f-8d634486d739
Osmond, C.
2677bf85-494f-4a78-adf8-580e1b8acb81
George, S.
bdfc752b-f67e-4490-8dc0-99bfaeb046ca
Johnson, C.D.
e50aa9cd-8c61-4fe3-a0b3-f51cc3a6c74a
September 2007
Fitzsimmons, D.
ad5cd3da-d85b-46d1-a31f-8d634486d739
Osmond, C.
2677bf85-494f-4a78-adf8-580e1b8acb81
George, S.
bdfc752b-f67e-4490-8dc0-99bfaeb046ca
Johnson, C.D.
e50aa9cd-8c61-4fe3-a0b3-f51cc3a6c74a
Fitzsimmons, D., Osmond, C., George, S. and Johnson, C.D.
(2007)
Trends in stomach and pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality in England and Wales, 1951-2000.
British Journal of Surgery, 94 (9), .
(doi:10.1002/bjs.5751).
Abstract
Background: The aim of this study was to describe period and cohort effects in incidence and mortality of stomach and pancreatic cancer in England and Wales.
Methods: National figures for mortality (1951-2000) and incidence (1971-2000) were analysed using log-linear Poisson regression models to obtain relative risks (RR) for period (year of incidence or death) and cohort (year of birth).
Results: Stomach cancer shows a pronounced cohort effect in mortality with a decline in RR in men from 2.20 (1876) to 0.47 (1946) and a reduction from 2.79 to 0.41 for women. Mortality to incidence ratios are now less than 0.70. Pancreatic cancer mortality (men) RR rose from 0.91 (1951-1955) to a peak 1.11 (1976-1980) and then declined to 0.90 (1996-2000). Women showed a similar pattern. Cohort RR (men) increased to a peak of 1.14 in 1916 and declined to 1.01 in 1946, and continued to fall; the peak occurred slightly later in women. Mortality to incidence ratios were near 1 in the first 20 years, declining to 0.95 in the last 10 years.
Conclusion: Stomach cancer incidence has fallen continuously from 19(th) century birth cohorts onwards. Incidence of pancreatic cancer has fallen in successive birth cohorts after 1920; peak period risk was 1976-1990. Age-standardized mortality and case mortality for pancreatic cancer are declining.
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Published date: September 2007
Keywords:
mortality, gastric-cancer, risk-factors, epidemiology, cardia, time, model, randomized-trial, europe, helicobacter-pylori infection, smoking, women, cohort, cancer, survival, risk, risks, death, models
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Local EPrints ID: 62738
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/62738
PURE UUID: 6e894626-6897-42e5-be34-56cb75487263
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Date deposited: 12 Sep 2008
Last modified: 16 Mar 2024 02:50
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Author:
D. Fitzsimmons
Author:
S. George
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