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Potential impact of climate change on marine export production

Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Potential impact of climate change on marine export production
Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (?6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from ?15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.
0886-6236
81-99
Bopp, Laurent
771de655-3caf-42ba-8231-40f17d4addc4
Monfray, Patrick
9ca9834b-9ef5-4933-af4b-b9597f6245f6
Aumont, Olivier
6ea5af9d-4c27-42d9-9ba7-749729efa72f
Dufresne, Jean-Louis
b1d358b5-01dc-4b23-8fb7-545934117d3a
Le Treut, Hervé
bd4366e8-8f3f-4eb3-90f5-ad433cea69cd
Madec, Gurvan
ffb28deb-4bbd-4a4c-914f-492f813e4864
Terray, Laurent
21d67f9e-3439-4c95-a221-ae70687bceca
Orr, James C.
46a466b9-a3e6-4f5d-82a1-0dbd848536fb
Bopp, Laurent
771de655-3caf-42ba-8231-40f17d4addc4
Monfray, Patrick
9ca9834b-9ef5-4933-af4b-b9597f6245f6
Aumont, Olivier
6ea5af9d-4c27-42d9-9ba7-749729efa72f
Dufresne, Jean-Louis
b1d358b5-01dc-4b23-8fb7-545934117d3a
Le Treut, Hervé
bd4366e8-8f3f-4eb3-90f5-ad433cea69cd
Madec, Gurvan
ffb28deb-4bbd-4a4c-914f-492f813e4864
Terray, Laurent
21d67f9e-3439-4c95-a221-ae70687bceca
Orr, James C.
46a466b9-a3e6-4f5d-82a1-0dbd848536fb

Bopp, Laurent, Monfray, Patrick, Aumont, Olivier, Dufresne, Jean-Louis, Le Treut, Hervé, Madec, Gurvan, Terray, Laurent and Orr, James C. (2001) Potential impact of climate change on marine export production. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15 (1), 81-99.

Record type: Article

Abstract

Future climate change will affect marine productivity, as well as other many components of Earth system. We have investigated the response of marine productivity to global warming with two different ocean biogeochemical schemes and two different atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (GCM). Both coupled GCMs were used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (+1% CO2/yr for 80 years). At 2×CO2, increased stratification leads to both reduced nutrient supply and increased light efficiency. Both effects drive a reduction in marine export production (?6%), although regionally changes can be both negative and positive (from ?15% zonal average in the tropics to +10% in the Southern Ocean). Both coupled models and both biogeochemical schemes simulate a poleward shift of marine production due mainly to a longer growing season at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the effect of reduced upwelling prevails. The resulting reduction in marine productivity, and other marine resources, could become detectable in the near future, if appropriate long-term observing systems are implemented.

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Published date: 2001

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 64818
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/64818
ISSN: 0886-6236
PURE UUID: 9ab16915-05bf-4a25-b985-601b6debdaab

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Date deposited: 15 Jan 2009
Last modified: 13 Mar 2019 20:20

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Contributors

Author: Laurent Bopp
Author: Patrick Monfray
Author: Olivier Aumont
Author: Jean-Louis Dufresne
Author: Hervé Le Treut
Author: Gurvan Madec
Author: Laurent Terray
Author: James C. Orr

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