Tempo and the TFR
Tempo and the TFR
The paper proposes that whether period indicators are biased by timing effects depends on the objective of measurement. Several kinds of bias in the TFR are identified. Five reasons for measuring period fertility are distinguished: to explain fertility time trends, to anticipate future prospects, to describe trends, to provide input parameters for formal models, and to communicate with non-specialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing where period fertility is the explanandum, but are distorting where the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Synthetic measures such as the TFR have a number of known defects. Alternatives to the TFR are available, and seem a more defensible solution to current problems than tempo adjustment. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modelling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could benefit by a more statistical approach and less reliance on indicators requiring stable assumptions.
fertility, measurement, period fertility, total fertility rate, tfr, synthetic cohort measures, tempo adjustment, fertility timing, fertility quantum, projection
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton
Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire
c9648b58-880e-4296-a173-7241449e0078
27 August 2008
Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire
c9648b58-880e-4296-a173-7241449e0078
Ní Bhrolcháin, Máire
(2008)
Tempo and the TFR
(S3RI Applications & Policy Working Papers, A08/10)
Southampton, GB.
Southampton Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton
45pp.
Record type:
Monograph
(Working Paper)
Abstract
The paper proposes that whether period indicators are biased by timing effects depends on the objective of measurement. Several kinds of bias in the TFR are identified. Five reasons for measuring period fertility are distinguished: to explain fertility time trends, to anticipate future prospects, to describe trends, to provide input parameters for formal models, and to communicate with non-specialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing where period fertility is the explanandum, but are distorting where the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Synthetic measures such as the TFR have a number of known defects. Alternatives to the TFR are available, and seem a more defensible solution to current problems than tempo adjustment. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modelling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could benefit by a more statistical approach and less reliance on indicators requiring stable assumptions.
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65033-01.pdf
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Published date: 27 August 2008
Keywords:
fertility, measurement, period fertility, total fertility rate, tfr, synthetic cohort measures, tempo adjustment, fertility timing, fertility quantum, projection
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Local EPrints ID: 65033
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/65033
PURE UUID: 69c466cd-0c86-482c-84a8-49b9ae69f03d
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Date deposited: 28 Jan 2009
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 12:05
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Author:
Máire Ní Bhrolcháin
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