The space debris environment: future evolution
The space debris environment: future evolution
Space debris represents a significant risk to satellite operations, due to the possibility of damaging or catastrophic collisions. Consequently, many satellite operators screen the orbiting population for close approaches with their on-orbit assets and a public conjunction assessment service, Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space (SOCRATES), generates close approach predictions on a daily basis for all satellite payloads in the catalogue. These screening capabilities are used to inform operational decisions relating to risk mitigation but it is anticipated that the demands placed on these services will increase as debris becomes more prolific. This hypothesis is explored in a preliminary analysis of conjunction data for the years 2004 to 2009 and a new ‘Business As Usual’ study using the Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture for the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) model. The results suggest a 50% increase in the number of close approaches reported by SOCRATES (or its equivalent) within the next ten years. By 2059, daily conjunction reports could contain over 50,000 close approaches below 5 km, affecting the demands placed on tracking facilities and satellite resources.
space debris, evolutionary model, conjunction assessment
Lewis, H.G.
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Swinerd, G.G.
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Newland, R.J.
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November 2009
Lewis, H.G.
e9048cd8-c188-49cb-8e2a-45f6b316336a
Swinerd, G.G.
4aa174ec-d08c-4972-9986-966e17e072a0
Newland, R.J.
88825b76-3726-4c54-96e4-403096d10cc1
Lewis, H.G., Swinerd, G.G. and Newland, R.J.
(2009)
The space debris environment: future evolution.
CEAS 2009 European Air and Space Conference, Manchester, United Kingdom.
26 - 29 Oct 2009.
41 pp
.
Record type:
Conference or Workshop Item
(Paper)
Abstract
Space debris represents a significant risk to satellite operations, due to the possibility of damaging or catastrophic collisions. Consequently, many satellite operators screen the orbiting population for close approaches with their on-orbit assets and a public conjunction assessment service, Satellite Orbital Conjunction Reports Assessing Threatening Encounters in Space (SOCRATES), generates close approach predictions on a daily basis for all satellite payloads in the catalogue. These screening capabilities are used to inform operational decisions relating to risk mitigation but it is anticipated that the demands placed on these services will increase as debris becomes more prolific. This hypothesis is explored in a preliminary analysis of conjunction data for the years 2004 to 2009 and a new ‘Business As Usual’ study using the Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture for the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) model. The results suggest a 50% increase in the number of close approaches reported by SOCRATES (or its equivalent) within the next ten years. By 2059, daily conjunction reports could contain over 50,000 close approaches below 5 km, affecting the demands placed on tracking facilities and satellite resources.
Text
Lewis_et_al_2011_AeronauticalJournal_DOI10 1017_S000192400005698.pdf
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More information
Published date: November 2009
Venue - Dates:
CEAS 2009 European Air and Space Conference, Manchester, United Kingdom, 2009-10-26 - 2009-10-29
Keywords:
space debris, evolutionary model, conjunction assessment
Organisations:
Astronautics Group
Identifiers
Local EPrints ID: 68967
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/68967
PURE UUID: c20522c0-c5b7-4c5d-84ba-40c41b8fcdb1
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Date deposited: 13 Oct 2009
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:40
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Contributors
Author:
R.J. Newland
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