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Estimating probability of sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care: evidence from the THREAD study.

Estimating probability of sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care: evidence from the THREAD study.
Estimating probability of sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care: evidence from the THREAD study.
Background: It is important for doctors and patients to know what factors help recovery from depression. Our objectives were to predict the probability of sustained recovery for patients presenting with mild to moderate depression in primary care, and to devise a means of estimating this probability on an individual basis.

Methods: Participants in a randomised controlled trial were identified through general practitioners (GPs) around three academic centres in England. Participants were aged 18+, with Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) scores 12 to 19 inclusive, and at least one physical symptom on the Bradford Somatic Inventory (BSI). Baseline assessments included demographics, treatment preference, life events and difficulties, and health and social care use. The outcome was sustained recovery, defined as HDRS score <8 at both 12 and 26 week follow-up. We produced a predictive model of outcome using logistic regression clustered by GP, and created a probability tree to demonstrate estimated probability of recovery at the individual level.

Results: Of 220 participants, 74% provided HDRS scores at 12 and 26 weeks. Thirty nine (24%) achieved sustained recovery, associated with being female, married/cohabiting, having a low BSI score and receiving preferred treatment. A linear predictor gives individual probabilities for sustained recovery given specific characteristics, and probability trees illustrate the range of probabilities and their uncertainties for some important combinations of factors.

Conclusions: Sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care appears more likely for women, people who are married or cohabiting, have few somatic symptoms and receive their preferred treatment.
0033-2917
141-150
Dowrick, C.
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Flach, C.
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Leese, M.
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Chatwin, J.
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Morriss, R.
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Peveler, R.
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Gabbay, M.
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Byng, R.
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Moore, M.
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Tylee, A.
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Kendrick, T.
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Dowrick, C.
62230e79-d957-4c6a-9c64-2b21dd7987cc
Flach, C.
df6c5f43-15ab-47b9-9bd3-743eb1d833cd
Leese, M.
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Chatwin, J.
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Morriss, R.
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Peveler, R.
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Gabbay, M.
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Byng, R.
2f69d048-e007-4a54-83fd-01ef1fa40da2
Moore, M.
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Tylee, A.
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Kendrick, T.
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Dowrick, C., Flach, C., Leese, M., Chatwin, J., Morriss, R., Peveler, R., Gabbay, M., Byng, R., Moore, M., Tylee, A. and Kendrick, T. (2010) Estimating probability of sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care: evidence from the THREAD study. Psychological Medicine, 41 (1), 141-150. (doi:10.1017/S003291710000437).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Background: It is important for doctors and patients to know what factors help recovery from depression. Our objectives were to predict the probability of sustained recovery for patients presenting with mild to moderate depression in primary care, and to devise a means of estimating this probability on an individual basis.

Methods: Participants in a randomised controlled trial were identified through general practitioners (GPs) around three academic centres in England. Participants were aged 18+, with Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) scores 12 to 19 inclusive, and at least one physical symptom on the Bradford Somatic Inventory (BSI). Baseline assessments included demographics, treatment preference, life events and difficulties, and health and social care use. The outcome was sustained recovery, defined as HDRS score <8 at both 12 and 26 week follow-up. We produced a predictive model of outcome using logistic regression clustered by GP, and created a probability tree to demonstrate estimated probability of recovery at the individual level.

Results: Of 220 participants, 74% provided HDRS scores at 12 and 26 weeks. Thirty nine (24%) achieved sustained recovery, associated with being female, married/cohabiting, having a low BSI score and receiving preferred treatment. A linear predictor gives individual probabilities for sustained recovery given specific characteristics, and probability trees illustrate the range of probabilities and their uncertainties for some important combinations of factors.

Conclusions: Sustained recovery from mild to moderate depression in primary care appears more likely for women, people who are married or cohabiting, have few somatic symptoms and receive their preferred treatment.

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More information

Submitted date: 19 February 2009
Published date: January 2010

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 72800
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/72800
ISSN: 0033-2917
PURE UUID: 582c6b94-20df-405e-8d9f-43589e658bd7
ORCID for R. Peveler: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0001-5596-9394
ORCID for M. Moore: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-5127-4509
ORCID for T. Kendrick: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-1618-9381

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 23 Feb 2010
Last modified: 09 Jan 2022 03:17

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Contributors

Author: C. Dowrick
Author: C. Flach
Author: M. Leese
Author: J. Chatwin
Author: R. Morriss
Author: R. Peveler ORCID iD
Author: M. Gabbay
Author: R. Byng
Author: M. Moore ORCID iD
Author: A. Tylee
Author: T. Kendrick ORCID iD

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