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Modelling local rail demand in South Wales

Modelling local rail demand in South Wales
Modelling local rail demand in South Wales
Direct demand models have been developed based on ticket sales data for 85 local rail stations in South Wales.

Initially log-linear regression models were calibrated, incorporating a variety of independent variables. Geographical Information Systems were used to implement flexible station catchment definition methods, notably flow-specific catchments where population units were allocated to stations by minimising the total travel time to individual destinations.

To validate these methods a survey of ultimate trip end locations was carried out on the Rhymney line in South Wales. To give consistency with predictions from trip end models, methods were developed to constrain predicted trip numbers for each flow based on the total trips observed or predicted from origin stations.

Simple scaling had only limited success, so probabilistic trip distribution models were calibrated by using both the linear and non-linear regression. These gave superior results and explicitly incorporated the effects of intervening opportunities in the model form.
demand, local rail, station, catchment
1029-0354
55-73
Blainey, Simon P.
ee6198e5-1f89-4f9b-be8e-52cc10e8b3bb
Preston, John M.
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b
Blainey, Simon P.
ee6198e5-1f89-4f9b-be8e-52cc10e8b3bb
Preston, John M.
ef81c42e-c896-4768-92d1-052662037f0b

Blainey, Simon P. and Preston, John M. (2010) Modelling local rail demand in South Wales. Transportation Planning and Technology, 33 (1), 55-73. (doi:10.1080/03081060903429363).

Record type: Article

Abstract

Direct demand models have been developed based on ticket sales data for 85 local rail stations in South Wales.

Initially log-linear regression models were calibrated, incorporating a variety of independent variables. Geographical Information Systems were used to implement flexible station catchment definition methods, notably flow-specific catchments where population units were allocated to stations by minimising the total travel time to individual destinations.

To validate these methods a survey of ultimate trip end locations was carried out on the Rhymney line in South Wales. To give consistency with predictions from trip end models, methods were developed to constrain predicted trip numbers for each flow based on the total trips observed or predicted from origin stations.

Simple scaling had only limited success, so probabilistic trip distribution models were calibrated by using both the linear and non-linear regression. These gave superior results and explicitly incorporated the effects of intervening opportunities in the model form.

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: February 2010
Keywords: demand, local rail, station, catchment
Organisations: Transportation Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 73875
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/73875
ISSN: 1029-0354
PURE UUID: 273e9f9e-0e7d-4fc8-b0aa-c11bf973df56
ORCID for Simon P. Blainey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4249-8110
ORCID for John M. Preston: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-6866-049X

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Mar 2010
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:41

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