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Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales

Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales
Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales
This paper details models which have been developed to forecast the total number of trips made from local rail stations in England and Wales over a one year period.

The use of multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression in calibration are compared, with both explaining over 75% of the variation in the observed data. The latter technique has not previously been used in rail demand modelling, and allows significant spatial variations in the effect of independent variables to be identified and mapped.

A number of catchment definition methods are investigated, as is the inclusion of a wide range of demographic and service related explanatory variables. The models developed are used to forecast usage at stations on the recently opened Ebbw Vale branch line in South Wales and these predictions are compared to initial usage figures

rail demand, station, geographically weighted regression
0966-6923
153-165
Blainey, Simon
ee6198e5-1f89-4f9b-be8e-52cc10e8b3bb
Blainey, Simon
ee6198e5-1f89-4f9b-be8e-52cc10e8b3bb

Blainey, Simon (2010) Trip end models of local rail demand in England and Wales. Journal of Transport Geography, 18 (1), 153-165. (doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2008.11.002).

Record type: Article

Abstract

This paper details models which have been developed to forecast the total number of trips made from local rail stations in England and Wales over a one year period.

The use of multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression in calibration are compared, with both explaining over 75% of the variation in the observed data. The latter technique has not previously been used in rail demand modelling, and allows significant spatial variations in the effect of independent variables to be identified and mapped.

A number of catchment definition methods are investigated, as is the inclusion of a wide range of demographic and service related explanatory variables. The models developed are used to forecast usage at stations on the recently opened Ebbw Vale branch line in South Wales and these predictions are compared to initial usage figures

Full text not available from this repository.

More information

Published date: January 2010
Keywords: rail demand, station, geographically weighted regression
Organisations: Transportation Group

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 74596
URI: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/74596
ISSN: 0966-6923
PURE UUID: d9d0a984-1215-4c25-868e-c99b5e333675
ORCID for Simon Blainey: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0003-4249-8110

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 11 Mar 2010
Last modified: 06 Jun 2018 12:36

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