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Climate change and coastal vulnerability assesment: scenarios for integrated assessment

Nicholls, Robert J., Wong, Poh Poh, Burkett, Virginia, Woodroffe, Colin D. and Hay, John (2008) Climate change and coastal vulnerability assesment: scenarios for integrated assessment Sustainability Science, 3, (1), pp. 89-102. (doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0050-4).

Record type: Article


Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors.

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Published date: April 2008
Keywords: coasts, impacts, adaptation, scenario, storyline


Local EPrints ID: 75702
ISSN: 1862-4065
PURE UUID: cb30dfda-d0b7-4ec7-9e97-af54ba129e2d

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Date deposited: 12 Mar 2010
Last modified: 18 Jul 2017 23:42

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Author: Poh Poh Wong
Author: Virginia Burkett
Author: Colin D. Woodroffe
Author: John Hay

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