Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge
Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge
The aim of the paper is to present Bayesian forecasts of immigration for seven European countries to 2025, based on quantitative data and qualitative knowledge elicited from country-specific migration experts in a two-round Delphi survey. In line with earlier results, most of the immigration processes under study were found to be barely predictable in the long run, exhibiting non-stationary features. This outcome was obtained largely irrespectively of the expert knowledge input, which nevertheless was found useful in describing the predictive uncertainty, especially in the short term. It is argued that, under the non-stationarity of migration processes, too long forecasts horizons are inadequate, which is a serious challenge for population forecasts in general.
22-[pp]
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ac031227-26aa-4063-8763-949030973633
2010
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
ac031227-26aa-4063-8763-949030973633
Bijak, Jakub and Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
(2010)
Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge.
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 173 (4), .
(doi:10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00635.x).
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to present Bayesian forecasts of immigration for seven European countries to 2025, based on quantitative data and qualitative knowledge elicited from country-specific migration experts in a two-round Delphi survey. In line with earlier results, most of the immigration processes under study were found to be barely predictable in the long run, exhibiting non-stationary features. This outcome was obtained largely irrespectively of the expert knowledge input, which nevertheless was found useful in describing the predictive uncertainty, especially in the short term. It is argued that, under the non-stationarity of migration processes, too long forecasts horizons are inadequate, which is a serious challenge for population forecasts in general.
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Published date: 2010
Organisations:
Social Statistics
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Local EPrints ID: 80156
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/80156
ISSN: 0964-1998
PURE UUID: 4b86d8dd-1d8d-4874-a798-7a6f4eb69037
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Date deposited: 24 Mar 2010
Last modified: 14 Mar 2024 02:55
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Author:
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
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