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Forecasting international migration in Europe: a Bayesian view

Forecasting international migration in Europe: a Bayesian view
Forecasting international migration in Europe: a Bayesian view
This book addresses from a methodological perspective a research problem, how to forecast the international migration component in a way that could be then used for population forecasts using the probabilistic approach.

All forecasts are made in the conditions of uncertainty, which is an immanent feature of every inference about the future, a key issue in forecasting becomes not to offer a point estimate of the future values of the variables under study, but rather to provide a reliable assessment of the related uncertainty span, ideally, in a coherent and quantifiable manner.

It consists of three major parts: an overview of existing theories, methods and models used for forecasting migration flows, followed by a proposition of a forecasting framework based on the Bayesian approach in statistics, and then by a discussion of the predictions from the point of view of forecast users (decision-makers).
bayesian, demography, gibbs sampling, markov chain monte carlo, migration, migration forecasting, migration prediction, model-based forecasting, population, r language, social sciences, var models, winbugs
9789048188963
24
Springer
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66
Bijak, Jakub
e33bf9d3-fca6-405f-844c-4b2decf93c66

Bijak, Jakub (2010) Forecasting international migration in Europe: a Bayesian view (Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, , (doi:10.1007/978-90-481-8897-0), 24), Dordrecht, NL. Springer, 308pp.

Record type: Book

Abstract

This book addresses from a methodological perspective a research problem, how to forecast the international migration component in a way that could be then used for population forecasts using the probabilistic approach.

All forecasts are made in the conditions of uncertainty, which is an immanent feature of every inference about the future, a key issue in forecasting becomes not to offer a point estimate of the future values of the variables under study, but rather to provide a reliable assessment of the related uncertainty span, ideally, in a coherent and quantifiable manner.

It consists of three major parts: an overview of existing theories, methods and models used for forecasting migration flows, followed by a proposition of a forecasting framework based on the Bayesian approach in statistics, and then by a discussion of the predictions from the point of view of forecast users (decision-makers).

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More information

Published date: 5 November 2010
Keywords: bayesian, demography, gibbs sampling, markov chain monte carlo, migration, migration forecasting, migration prediction, model-based forecasting, population, r language, social sciences, var models, winbugs
Organisations: Social Statistics & Demography, Social Statistics

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 80283
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/80283
ISBN: 9789048188963
PURE UUID: 0914bae6-74f9-442e-a960-434724b02804
ORCID for Jakub Bijak: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-2563-5040

Catalogue record

Date deposited: 24 Mar 2010
Last modified: 07 Oct 2020 04:04

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