Assessing the vulnerability of the rice-wheat production system in the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plains to climatic drivers

Abstract

This thesis explores the spatial patterns in the vulnerability of the rice-wheat production systems of Punjab and Haryana to climate. Remote sensing monitoring is used to identify rice and wheat crop extents and to capture dynamics of the cropping system such as length of growing periods and cropland productivity. This remote sensing monitoring is integrated with analysis of climate datasets and other measures of the agricultural system to 1) identify the exposure of rice-wheat croplands to harmful climate drivers, 2) capture the sensitivity of the rice-wheat croplands to climate and to 3) inform targeted adaptations to improve climate resilience, ensure environmental sustainability and sufficient levels of production, the pillars of a climate-smart landscape.

Across all India, including Punjab and Haryana, there was a fragmented spatial pattern in the occurrence, and sign, in trends of monsoon precipitation. This highlights the need for locally sensitive water resources management. Over 5 million ha of rice-wheat croplands in Punjab and Haryana were exposed to unfavourable trends in facets of monsoon precipitation; this was mainly exposure to increasing recurrence of drought years and increasing inter-annual variability in monsoon precipitation. However, crop yield-climate regression models indicated that precipitation is not influencing variability in rice or wheat crop production but growing season temperatures are. Average minimum and maximum temperature during the thermo-sensitive periods of crop development have a greater negative impact on wheat crop yield than exceedance of critical temperatures. The negative impact of warming on wheat crop production increased with later start-of-season dates. Through an integrated use of remote sensing datasets the spatial patterns in the magnitude and varying nature of the vulnerability of crop production to climate were captured. This enabled identification of location-specific stresses, such as later sowing dates, and targeting locally optimum adaptations.

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ORCID for P.M. Atkinson: orcid.org/0000-0002-5489-6880

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