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Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm-tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm-tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment
Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm-tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment
The probability of extreme storm-tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within the duration of such events and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies such variability during extreme storm-tide events (the combined elevation of the tide, surge, and their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around the UK. Extreme storm-tide events were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 and 2012. At each site, the variability in elevation at each time step, relative to a given event peak, was quantified. The magnitude of this time series variability was influenced both by gauge location (and hence the tidal and nontidal residual characteristics) and the time relative to high water. The potential influence of this variability on coastal inundation was assessed across all UK gauge sites, followed by a detailed case study of Portsmouth. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Portsmouth region was used to demonstrate that given a current 1 in 200 year storm-tide event, the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the upper and lower bounds of the observed time series variability. The results indicate that variability in the time series of the storm-tide event can have considerable influence upon overflow volumes, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the envelopes of variability defined in this research provides a valuable tool for coastal flood modelers.
extreme water levels, storm tides, surge surges, tides, coastal flooding, united kingdom
2169-9275
4983-4998
Quinn, N.
57bd46a2-bbcd-49f4-95db-6187cb2dc13f
Lewis, M.
4d2a3d44-6b6f-40f1-966b-4799cad56293
Wadey, M.P.
e712b840-f36b-41aa-ae28-d4d81de31831
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d
Quinn, N.
57bd46a2-bbcd-49f4-95db-6187cb2dc13f
Lewis, M.
4d2a3d44-6b6f-40f1-966b-4799cad56293
Wadey, M.P.
e712b840-f36b-41aa-ae28-d4d81de31831
Haigh, I.D.
945ff20a-589c-47b7-b06f-61804367eb2d

Quinn, N., Lewis, M., Wadey, M.P. and Haigh, I.D. (2014) Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm-tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 119 (8), 4983-4998. (doi:10.1002/2014JC010197).

Record type: Article

Abstract

The probability of extreme storm-tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within the duration of such events and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies such variability during extreme storm-tide events (the combined elevation of the tide, surge, and their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around the UK. Extreme storm-tide events were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 and 2012. At each site, the variability in elevation at each time step, relative to a given event peak, was quantified. The magnitude of this time series variability was influenced both by gauge location (and hence the tidal and nontidal residual characteristics) and the time relative to high water. The potential influence of this variability on coastal inundation was assessed across all UK gauge sites, followed by a detailed case study of Portsmouth. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Portsmouth region was used to demonstrate that given a current 1 in 200 year storm-tide event, the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the upper and lower bounds of the observed time series variability. The results indicate that variability in the time series of the storm-tide event can have considerable influence upon overflow volumes, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the envelopes of variability defined in this research provides a valuable tool for coastal flood modelers.

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Accepted/In Press date: 16 July 2014
Published date: 11 August 2014
Keywords: extreme water levels, storm tides, surge surges, tides, coastal flooding, united kingdom
Organisations: Physical Oceanography

Identifiers

Local EPrints ID: 367986
URI: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/367986
ISSN: 2169-9275
PURE UUID: ae3dedd6-7713-4a06-805b-2d2d50dc3dd8
ORCID for I.D. Haigh: ORCID iD orcid.org/0000-0002-9722-3061

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Date deposited: 12 Aug 2014 12:38
Last modified: 15 Mar 2024 03:26

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Contributors

Author: N. Quinn
Author: M. Lewis
Author: M.P. Wadey
Author: I.D. Haigh ORCID iD

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